Phil Steele says Mississippi State will not match nine wins from 2022

College football magazine maven Phil Steele released his 2023 edition and his prognosis for Mississippi State’s season is poor. The Bulldogs have a new head coach and are overhauling offensive schemes after the death of late head coach Mike Leach.

Along with trying to pivot from a pure Air Raid offense to an outside zone running game, head coach Zach Arnett is doing so after being promoted from defensive coordinator, handing off the offense to new OC Kevin Barbay. That transition, plus a fair bit of roster turnover have Steele pumping the brakes on the Bulldogs.

“Leach did his usual great job as they were 5-1 and finished 9-4 despite a Vegas Over/Under of 6.5. Sadly a true innovator on offense and great person overall coach Leach passed away in December prior to the bowl. I will greatly miss my spring conversations with him. The Bulldogs dedicated their bowl win to him. [Mississippi State] did benefit from three Net Close wins and drop to #32 on my Exp Chart. They are changing the offense which could result in some growing pains. They have 12 starters back and rate a Stock Market Indicator of -3.2 so unlike last year, most signs are pointing down. They host [Alabama] and LSU so most winnable games are on the road and they will not match last year’s win total,” Steele wrote.

Trips to Arkansas, Auburn and Texas A&M also pop out as challenges on the road for the Bulldogs, too. To get to nine wins, the Bulldogs would presumably need to beat two of the five aforementioned SEC foes — by no means an easy task.

And Steele compared the way Mississippi State enters 2023 to the way they entered prior seasons under Leach.

“Mike Leach after 4-7 first year (all SEC schedule) had eight starters back on both offense and defense in ’21. The Bulldogs were in my Going Up Box … (lighter schedule) and made my coveted Most Improved List. [Mississippi State] went 7-5 but with a depleted roster lost to [Texas Tech] 34-7 in the bowl,” Steele wrote about that year.

He also compared this Mississippi State squad to 2022.

“Last year [Mississippi State] had a veteran QB and with eight starters back on offense and nine on defense, and in ’21 was +95 ypg in SEC play despite their 4-4 record, and they had the most [experienced] team in the SEC … all signs pointing up,” Steele wrote.

That, however, is not the case in 2023, as Steele doesn’t see the Bulldogs getting to nine wins again.