Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Missouri in 2024

The Missouri Tigers turned some heads last season after finishing the year with the program’s best record since 2014. Ending the season 11-2 capped off with a Cotton Bowl victory over Ohio State.

But with a multitude of key players ending their time with the program including six NFL Draft selections, many are curious if head coach Eliah Drinkwitz and his squad can match their success in 2024 ahead of a season featuring numerous changes.

On3’s Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire recently discussed Mizzou’s potential this upcoming season. Diving into what the ceiling and floor of success could potentially look like for the Tigers as they look to build on their breakout season.

CEILING: Double-digit wins, College Football Playoff

With the Tigers finishing last season with a No. 9 ranking in the final College Football Playoff poll, them making the CFP in this year’s expanded 12-team playoff is not unrealistic. Especially after doing a solid job on paper of replacing their lost production and being dealt a favorable schedule in a new look SEC.

“They’ve done a good job rebuilding, reloading, however you want to call it and then you look at the schedule and it certainly seems like this is a team that could win double-digit games again,” Staples said. “You don’t have to beat Alabama, they go to Tuscaloosa, do not have to beat Alabama. But you need to beat Auburn, you need to go to College Station and win. And if you do that I think there’s a really good chance you’re in the playoff.”

Five of Missouri’s defensive starters were selected in the most recent NFL Draft, also losing defensive coordinator Blake Baker who helped get the most out of those players. But Bellaire is confident that the Tigers’ offense headlined by Luther Burden will be able to pick up the slack.

“I think so too, and I think it helps having continuity at quarterback again. I think Brady Cook being back is one of the top quarterbacks in the conference. I think one of the biggest things outside of the personnel they’re missing on the defensive side of the ball, losing Blake Baker hurts … But I don’t see this offense slowing down by any means,” Bellaire said.

FLOOR: 8-4

Eight wins for the Tigers next season would represent their second-best finish in the past six seasons only trailing their standout 2023 campaign. Showing a quick shift in their culture and expectations from both inside and outside of the program as of late.

“I had 8-4 as the floor if the defense does not come around and again, you lost some really impactful players and your coordinator. But I don’t think it’s much worse than that,” Staples said. “And you think about where they were a couple years ago, the idea that the floor for Missouri in the SEC, an SEC that includes Texas and Oklahoma, that the floor is 8-4. That’s a pretty big jump for them.”

“I think Columbia sort of has this expectation where Eli Drinkwitz has instilled that. And I think he’s showing it on the recruiting trail, he’s showing it in the portal, he’s showing it in the postgame handshake,” Bellaire said referring to Drinkwitz’s viral moment with Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel. “These guys are really about that life and I think this season is going to prove that once again.”

It will be intriguing to see if the Tigers stand on business once again this year and can live up to their new high expectations ahead of the highly anticipated 2024 season.