NC State vs. UConn: Predicting whether the Wolfpack will cover the 14.5-point spread

As Week 1 kicks off this week, one of the more intriguing matchups takes place at Rentschler Field. That’s where NC State will take on UConn as the Wolfpack unveil their new quarterback in Brennan Armstrong, who reunites with offensive coordinator Robert Anae.

Despite going on the road, NC State is a 14.5-point favorite at multiple sportsbooks, according to VegasInsider. It’s unusual — and, to some, it could be a trap.

“Always beware the home underdog on a Thursday night,” On3’s Andy Staples said on Andy Staples On3. “He can bite.”

Ultimately, though, the Wolfpack look like it could fight off the home underdog and wind up covering that spread. As On3’s J.D. PicKell pointed out, the combination of Armstrong and Anae worked well together at Virginia. In their last year together in 2021, Armstrong threw for 4,449 yards and 31 touchdowns before Anae departed to join Dave Doeren’s staff.

That success is why PicKell is confident in the NC State offense with Armstrong at QB.

“I’m taking NC State. I’m gonna take them to win and to cover,” PicKell said. “I love the reuniting of Robert Anae, the OC at NC State, getting his quarterback back from Virginia, Brennan Armstrong. I think it’s going to be fireworks like a bad eighth grader on the Fourth of July behind the middle school. I think that’s the kind of situation we’re looking at here. I think NC State with Brennan Armstrong — what he was at Virginia when they were together last, I mean, we were talking about him like maybe being a sneaky Heisman guy going into the 2022 season with what he did in that 2021 campaign.

“So I think them getting back together, we always know Dave Doeren’s gonna have a solid defense. It’s just kind of been his trademark at NC State. I think they win this game, and I think they win [by] more than that 14.5-point margin.”

On defense, though, Payton Wilson is one of the biggest names returning for NC State. He’s one of the leaders of that unit and had a big year last year with 82 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks.

While Jim Mora has done impressive things at UConn, Staples is also taking the Wolfpack to cover — and predicting some momentum heading into a key Week 2 game.

“They’ve got Payton Wilson back. They’ve got a lot of really good players on that defense,” Staples said. “I love what Jim Mora did at UConn, I think he got them playing very hard, I think he’s upgraded their talent. I know they’re going to be excited for the showcase game.

“That said, yeah, I’m with you. NC State wins and covers. And then get ready for a matchup between Notre Dame and the Wolfpack in Raleigh and Week 2.”

PicKell agreed about the effects of a big win over UConn trickling over into the following week for NC State. In fact, he thinks that game will play a big role in deciding just how much hype will be around the Fighting Irish.

“That’s gonna be a good one, man,” PicKell said. “Everyone’s talking about Ohio State-Notre Dame. We find out a lot about Notre Dame when they go to NC State. I think it’s a noon kick, too, Andy. Kind of sleepy, you’re walking in there after playing Tennessee State. I’m very excited for that one.”