2025 NCAA Tournament bubble watch: Joe Lunardi assesses UNC ahead of ACC Tournament

North Carolina remains on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament going into this week at the ACC Tournament. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi doesn’t like their chances of getting back into the field as of now either with what’s ahead for them in Charlotte.

In an appearance tonight on ESPN2, Lunardi discussed the Tar Heels’ chances of being in the bracket on Selection Sunday. That started with where they finished the regular season on Saturday with a 82-69 loss to No. 2 Duke setting them at 20-12 overall and in fifth in the ACC at 13-7.

“Well, the Tar Heels lost a golden opportunity last night,” said Lunardi.

The loss to the Blue Devils wasn’t helpful for two reasons. For one, UNC missed another chance to win a quality game as, per the latest in the NET Rankings, they’re currently at 40th with a record of 1-11 in Quad I games. For two, though, is the loss but them on the less favorable side of the conference bracket with none other than, again, Duke. Had they won and been able to have an easier chance at wins, Lunardi might have liked their chances better. Instead, they’ll just be trying not to lose in the second round and quarterfinals before very likely facing their in-state rival again once they got there.

“What really hurts them I think is now they’re in Duke’s half of the bracket (in the ACC Tournament). What really could have helped UNC would have been to be on the side of the bracket with Clemson and Louisville because, conceivably, they’re Quad 1 neutral court opportunities. It would have given them the chance for one or two of those elusive Q1 wins without having to face or beat Duke again. Now, if they got to Duke in the final, it would be gravy,” Lunardi explained. “But, now, Carolina? They’re gonna play the Notre Dame–Pitt winner. And then Wake Forest. That’ll be a play-out game for the loser. And then, the winner of that game will need to beat Duke in a semifinal just to keep their slim bubble hopes alive.”

North Carolina is in a bad spot with Selection Sunday being a week away. That puts everything for them and their season on the conference tournament this week – with a third and final chance at the Blue Devils projecting as a last hope for UNC to be in the bracket.

“I’m not feeling very optimistic for the Tar Heels at this point,” Lunardi said.