ESPN identifies best, worst case scenarios for North Carolina in 2023

North Carolina could storm into the College Football Playoff discussion on the back of their star quarterback… or they could falter around him and suffer through a disappointing 7-5 type of year.

It’s all on the table, according to ESPN’s David Hale, who broke down what best-case and worst-case scenarios would look like for the Tar Heels on the football field in 2023. With a talent like Drake Maye under center, fans are hoping for another magical season, but Hale is here to evaluate the reality and tell us what the ceiling of the team looks like, and what the all-systems-failure would look like as well.

So below, you can read Hale’s projection for each ends of the spectrum and see his explanation for why North Carolina will or won’t beat expectations this fall.

Best Case

Hale believes a main reason to believe in another special season for the Heels is their fairly easy schedule by power conference standards. “The schedule suits Carolina well,” he wrote, “with its likely toughest opponents coming in November.” That’s correct, as the Heels won’t face Clemson until then, and also don’t visit rival NC State until the final week of the year. Overall, they’ll avoid a lot of the ACC’s top half and should easily hit eight wins.

Hale specifically is calling for nine wins or more in his best-case situation for UNC. Given the schedule, especially within the conference, and a star QB like Maye, who will “give the Heels a chance in every game this season,” per Hale, Mack Brown should be thinking conference championship.

“The Heels can certainly repeat last year’s 9-3 regular season, and perhaps aim a bit higher — like an ACC title,” he says. And with Maye at QB and a schedule that doesn’t scare you, who knows.

Worst Case

According to David Hale, a superstar talent like Draye Maye covered up some holes throughout the rest of the UNC team. “For all Maye’s impressive numbers last year, his heroics likely hid a number of big flaws for a while,” he wrote, noting the Heels’ impressive record in close games. They did win their first six one-score games of last season and finished the year 6-3 in them.

Hale says they better not play with that kind of fire again. “If all else is the same this year, but the close-game luck is just a bit worse, there’s a formula for a 5-7 or 6-6 campaign,” he claims. Which is possible, since North Carolina didn’t just win by one score, but needed some real luck to pull off some of those victories. With the balls bouncing the wrong way this time around, those results could be wildly different.

So, in total, David Hale says the ceiling is the roof and another appearance in the ACC title is entirely possible. However, if the team around Maye hasn’t stepped up, they could be in danger of underwhelming expectations big time, especially if those close games start going the other way.