Evaluating Freshman Impact: North Carolina's Caleb Wilson

Caleb Wilson is the highest-rated commitment of the decade so far for North Carolina. He’ll now be bringing a skillset that’ll help the Tar Heels on both sides of the court as a true freshman next season in Chapel Hill.

On3 Insider Jamie Shaw had a conversation last week about the incoming freshman class with On3’s James Fletcher. In doing so, Shaw named Wilson as one of his top recruits coming out in 2025.

“He’s just such an interesting prospect,” said Shaw.

That starts on the defensive end with Wilson in Shaw’s evaluation. He sees a prospect whose floor is already set going into this next year with what he’ll be able to bring as a sizable, capable defender, at least when it comes to a freshman.

“For me, what really stands out with him is the defensive aspects of his game. He’s incredibly switchable. He’s able to slide his feet, open his hips, switch down. He’s got great off-ball timing. Getting into passing lanes. Obviously switching within possessions but also, kind of weak-side rim protection type-stuff. I think there’s a very high upside when it comes to his defensive capabilities and he gives effort on defense,” said Shaw. “Obviously, coming out of high school, there’s a lot of holes in everybody’s defense – learning the steps and footwork, learning the defensive scheme that team is running and all that type of stuff. In college, there’s a little bit of a learning curve. But he gives great effort on defense with a lot of physical upside that he brings. So I very much like his defensive game.”

It’s then the offense that’ll make the difference in how good Wilson can be this year at UNC. Shaw thinks his offensive game, based on how he played at his actual high school as compared to events with other top prospects, projects much better at the collegiate level than at the prep level. That’s with more space to work with and less pressure on him to make something happen himself, which would allow him to fully show more of his abilities offensively.

“When Caleb Wilson plays with, you know, his high school team? Not as talented as all this other stuff. Won a state championship. He’s the go-to player. He gets three and four guys on him at all times, no spacing whatsoever and he’s able to kind of face up and show some offensive game there,” said Shaw. “When he’s playing in a more McDonald’s All-American type setting, a USA Basketball-type setting, probably in college? There’s going to be spacing. What he does though is consolidate his game. He’s not having to do two or three dribbles trying to find a counter and hit a mid-range jump shot. No, he’s ripping through and going straight downhill. At the McDonald’s All-American Game, he was unbelievable off-ball. You know, he was just, as the roll-man in the screen-and-roll, diving straight to the front of the rim, finishing above the rim. You’re going to see a lot of big-time dunks with him. You’re going to see a lot of violent plays, ripping through going toward the rim.”

“When he played on the EYBL Circuit with Cam Boozer as a teammate, he was the secondary option to Cam, getting a lot of one-on-one options and he was able to efficiently score at almost a 55%, 60% clip in various spots, whether it be a pick-and-pop eighteen-footer, whether it be posting up on the block, or whether it be diving to the rim or out of the dunker spot, whatever the case may be,” Shaw added.

Wilson, an Atlanta native, played his high school basketball at Holy Innocents Episcopal. He would finish as the No. 5 overall recruit there as a Five-Star+ prospect for the cycle in ’25. He also rated as the No. 2 power forward in the class, behind only Boozer (Duke), and as the top player out of the state of Georgia. That’s according to the Rivals Industry Ranking, a weighted average that utilizes all four major recruiting media companies.

With that, Wilson would commit to North Carolina towards the end of January over Kentucky among with other national interest. That makes him the top signee for the program since Cole Anthony back in 2019.

Shaw sees all the tools in Wilson to be the top-five prospect that he’s tabbed as coming into college. It’s just about how they call come together, namely on offense, to make what could be one of the higher-impact, two-way freshmen in college basketball next season for UNC.

“I think Caleb Wilson, with spacing? I think you’re going to see a whole lot more of his offensive game than what you’ve seen previously. And I think there’s an upside there, obviously, with the defensive side of this stuff as well. I think that he could possibly end up being one of the best defensive players in this class coming out of UNC this season,” said Shaw. “I think that that two-way ability, at 6’10 with that length and pop, gives him a lot of upside.”