Greg McElroy doubts Bill Belichick's chances at winning nine games in 2025

All eyes will be on Bill Belichick during his first season as head coach of North Carolina. Ahead of the 2025 season, the Tar Heels have received conflicting expectations under the longtime NFL coach.

During his show Always College Football, ESPN’s Greg McElroy was asked whether the Tar Heels have a chance to win up to nine games this fall. He’s not convinced they’ll meet that goal this season.

“This is nothing to do with Bill Belichick. It has nothing to do with him getting comfortable in the college game,” McElroy said. “Has nothing to do with the ACC or the upside that North Carolina may have. It’s the fact that I just have no idea what is a reasonable expectation for the Tar Heels this year. I look at their schedule and think, ‘Well, maybe you win there, maybe a win there. Maybe they surprise someone here.’ I just don’t know enough, because there’s been such turnover from last year to this year.

“There are so many new faces. There are so many guys that are needing to be replaced, and so many guys that have been backfilled in the portal. I think it could be a great year, I think it could be a pretty average year. I really don’t know.”

North Carolina lost a whopping 41 players to the NCAA transfer portal this offseason. Belichick answered with 42 portalers committing to his Tar Heels program — the No. 8 class in this year’s team transfer rankings. He’s also bringing in 30 true freshmen to his roster, good for a top 50 recruiting class.

Belichick has also brought in new members to his coaching staff. Only a handful of familiar faces remain in Chapel Hill from last season.

“I think North Carolina, along with a handful of other teams, might be the biggest question mark in the sport,” McElroy continued. “They could win nine (games), but they could also win five. … They could be really, really good, or they could kind of come back to Earth and look a little more like last year than they did the year before.

“There are a bunch of teams that have big boom, big bust potential. I think North Carolina is one of them.”

The Tar Heels will begin the 2025 season hosting TCU inside Kenan Stadium. The Horned Frogs are early betting favorites, and McElroy believes the Horned Frogs aren’t getting talked about enough this offseason. It’ll be the first test for Belichick as UNC head coach.