Joe Lunardi breaks down North Carolina's NCAA Tournament bracket odds entering final game of season

With just one regular season game left, North Carolina‘s odds of reaching the NCAA Tournament were revealed by ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi. The Tar Heels are closing out their season with a home game against rival Duke — and according to Lunardi a win could secure them a spot in March Madness before the ACC Tournament.

Joe Lunardi calls Duke a “must win” game for North Carolina

Although Lunardi shared some good news for North Carolina fans ahead of their final game on Saturday, it does come with a caveat.

“North Carolina’s latest ‘must win’ game may be enough to life them into the field for a day depending on Arizona State later tonight and Penn State tomorrow,” wrote Lunardi on his breakdown.

According to the ESPN “bracketologist,” the Tar Heels need a win in order to make the tournament in the first place — although if Arizona State and Penn State handle their own business it may not matter ultimately.

In his latest bracket predictions, North Carolina sits as one of the “First Four Out” behind Arizona State. Joining them in the near-miss category is Utah State and Michigan, both ranked below North Carolina at the moment.

Ahead of them in the “Last Four In” sits Penn State, Wisconsin, Nevada and Mississippi State in reverse order. If Penn State loses, the door opens for North Carolina and Arizona State — although the exact order will be determined after the games all finish. Either way, the path to the tournament starts with handing their rival a loss at home on Saturday.