KenPom predicts outcome of crucial final three regular season games for UNC

UNC is firmly on bubble watch for the NCAA Tournament. The Tar Heels have three games remaining in the regular season, and a strong finish will be pivotal. If UNC wants to make the NCAA Tournament, a strong end to the regular season with a possible run in the ACC Tournament would be greatly beneficial. KenPom just predicted the outcome of UNC’s final three regular season games, giving a glimpse into how the rest of the year could go in Chapel Hill.

KenPom’s predictions for UNC’s final three games

Saturday, Feb. 26 at NC State: UNC 80 – NC State 75 (66% win probability)

Monday, Feb. 28 vs. Syracuse: UNC 83 – Syracuse 77 (71% win probability)

Saturday, Mar. 5 at Duke: Duke 82 – UNC 71 (17% win probability)

UNC recently reached 20 wins in the first season of the Hubert Davis era

This season is the first for UNC with Hubert Davis as head coach following the retirement of longtime coach Roy Williams in the offseason. In the first year under Davis, UNC reached the 20 victory mark for the first time since the 2018-2019 season. That year, UNC went 29-7 and made a run to the Sweet Sixteen. While UNC’s spot in the NCAA Tournament is far from assured, the Tar Heels are hoping to allow themselves a chance at making another deep run in March.

If KenPom’s predictions hold true, UNC will finish the regular season with a 22-9 overall record, including a 14-6 mark against ACC opponents. The Tar Heels currently sit in third place in the ACC alongside Miami, trailing behind first place Duke and second place Notre Dame. UNC has a great opportunity to make up some ground, especially with a huge matchup against Duke on next Saturday. That game will also serve as the final regular season game at Cameron Indoor for Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski.

Reaching 20 wins means a lot to Davis and UNC, but it speaks more about what this Tar Heels team has had to go through to reach this point.

“This group has gone through a lot. We’ve gone through injuries, we’ve gone through lineup changes, and we’re here,” Davis said. “Not necessarily focusing on the 20th win, but just focusing on how much we have had to persevere to get to this point. So I’m really proud of the guys, but I’m not taking a deep breathe and our team is not taking a deep breathe. We’re not relaxing at all, we have tomorrow off and then it’s full-steam ahead in terms of our preparation for a really good NC State team on Saturday afternoon.”