ESPN FPI projects each game on North Carolina's 2021 schedule

North Carolina finished the 2020 season with an 8-4 record after falling to Texas A&M in the Orange Bowl. Despite losing some key contributors, ESPN’s FPI tool projects North Carolina to have another successful year in 2021. FPI projects each game, and it gives UNC a 5.4% chance to win the ACC.

Here is a game-by-game breakdown of North Carolina’s schedule:

At Virginia Tech: The Tar Heels get their season underway on the road against a tough Virginia Tech team. The Hokies’ FPI sits at 8.3, which is nearly a top-25 ranking. UNC won this matchup in a 56-45 shootout in 2020.

Georgia State: UNC’s home opener is unique in that it kicks off an unheard-of six-game homestand. Georgia State’s FPI is ranked 90th in the country, and the Tar Heels are given a 92.5% likelihood to win.

Virginia: Sam Howell threw for over 440 yards in this matchup last season, but Virginia came away victorious. Virginia’s FPI comes in at 37th in the nation at 6.2, but UNC is given a 75.1% chance to win it this season.

Georgia Tech: These two teams did not face off against each other in 2020. ESPN projects UNC to have a 77.2% likelihood to win. Georgia Tech’s FPI sits at 57th at 2.3.

Duke: The Blue Devils have the second-lowest FPI on UNC’s schedule at -3.3. The Tar Heels took last year’s matchup 56-24. They are given a 90.4% chance to win in 2021.

Florida State: Florida State won a close 31-28 game over UNC in 2020. The Seminoles have a respectable FPI of 5.1, which is 44th in the nation. ESPN projects UNC to have a 78.3% chance to win.

Miami: This is the final game of UNC’s six-game homestand, and it is the toughest game to this point on the schedule. Miami’s FPI of 15.0 ranks 10th in the country. UNC won big in the 2020 matchup, but Miami looks to be favored. The Tar Heels are given a 47.7% chance to win. This game could very well decide the winner of the ACC Coastal division.

At Notre Dame: UNC’s first road following the six-game homestand is a tough one as they travel to South Bend. Notre Dame has a top eight FPI entering 2021 and won 2020’s contest 31-17. The Tar Heels are given just a 34.7% chance to win this one.

Wake Forest: Last year’s matchup was a high-scoring contest and UNC won it 59-53. Wake’s FPI is ranked at 56th in the country, and the Tar Heels have an 82.2% likelihood to win it again in 2021.

At Pittsburgh: Despite being just the third road game on UNC’s schedule, this is another tough late-season matchup. Pittsburgh’s 6.8 FPI is 32nd in the nation. UNC favored, but not by much with a 59.3% chance to win.

Wofford: This is a favorable late-season opponent in the middle of many tough games. UNC’s home finale looks likely to be a victory, and the Tar Heels have a 98.2% chance to win.

At NC State: UNC defeated NC State 48-21 last year, and the Tar Heels have a 63.8% chance to win in 2021. This regular-season finale looks to be a good matchup as the Wolfpack’s FPI comes in at 5.6, 41st in the country.

ESPN FPI projects that North Carolina looking at another 8-4 season in 2021. The Tar Heels are favored in the majority of their games, but the ACC still contains some sneaky and dangerous teams. If UNC wants a chance to come for Clemson’s ACC crown, it will have to come up with a couple of tough victories down the stretch.