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Why North Carolina could fall short of 8.5 wins in 2023

IMG_6598by:Nick Kosko•05/27/23•

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(Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

There is a lot of hype surrounding North Carolina in 2023, but the Tar Heels will go under 8.5 wins, according to On3’s J.D. PicKell.

Despite having Heisman contender and potential No. 1 overall pick Drake Maye under center, the schedule might be too much to overcome this fall. With the ACC steadily improving, the Tar Heels might fall short of their goals.

PicKell detailed why you might want to place your bets on the under on North Carolina this fall.

“Let’s look at North Carolina now. The over under for them is 8.5 wins. And I said earlier in the show there’s a hype train now it’s painted Tarheel blue and it’s got Drake Maye’s face pasted in plastered all over it. For good reason,” PicKell said on The Hard Count. “You can make a very legitimate case for him to be the best quarterback in the entire class when it comes to the NFL Draft next year.

“Talked to this scout yesterday. He told me ‘listen, Caleb Williams is probably the best. But Drake Maye, man he’s right there. Drake Maye is right in the mix for that best quarterback in the draft class.’” 

While that all sounds good, especially with Maye under center, North Carolina won’t hit 8.5 wins in PicKell’s mind.

“Here’s my issue though,” PicKell said. “Drake Maye doesn’t play defense. He plays quarterback. And last year, North Carolina’s defense allowed 173 Rush yards per game. They allowed 270 passing yards per game. Defense was not bringing it. So it was a whole lot of shootouts and last year. North Carolina they went 9-5 last year. They won six games by one score. It’s not a good way to live. Not a good way to live, winning close game after close game after close game …

“I’m not saying what’s going to happen, but I’m just saying I like the under here. You’re at Clemson, you’re at NC State. No thank you. Under 8.5 wins for North Carolina. We’ll go ahead and lock that one in as well.”

North Carolina certainly has an opportunity to win a shootout every single week. But as PicKell said, that’s not exactly smart each game.

Maye finished with 4,321 yards, 38 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 66.2% completion percentage last season. If those numbers improve, UNC might hit the over, but it better hope the defense steps up too.