Breaking down path for North Carolina to NCAA Tournament berth

In a rare occurrence, the North Carolina Tar Heels could potentially find themselves on the bubble late in the season. New head coach Hubert Davis has struggled to pick up quality wins and it could cost UNC in less than a month’s time.

ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi laid out the way for the Tar Heels to make the NCAA tournament. First, he started with why the resume does not look good at this point. Lunardi said the lack of Quadrant 1 wins alone could cause North Carolina to be an NIT team in March.

“First, the bad news: the Tar Heels have played seven Quad 1 games and lost them all (by an unsightly average of 18.6 points),” Lunardi said. “And they likely have just three Q1 games remaining before the ACC tournament — at Clemson on Tuesday (6 p.m. ET, ACC Network), at Virginia Tech (Feb. 19) and at Duke (March 5). If they go 0-10 in those contests and then belly-up at the ACC tournament in Brooklyn, well, they’ll miss the NCAA tournament on merit.”

North Carolina was able to pull out a win against Clemson on Tuesday, winning by two on the road. Getting their first Quad 1 win of the season was huge for the Tar Heels. Armando Bacot was the star of the show again, finishing with a 24 point and 10 rebound double-double.

Even before the Clemson win, Lunardi said the Tar Heels just need to be the best mediocre team sitting around the bubble. Wins against Virginia Tech and Duke will help but getting wins where you’re supposed to will see Davis make the NCAA Tournament in his first season in charge.

“All North Carolina has to do the rest of the way is be among the best of a mediocre lot,” said Lunardi. “And I believe, from a strictly basketball standpoint, that Carolina has the talent to continue winning the games it should and eventually steal one or two 50/50 matchups. That would put them in the NCAA tournament, avoid the First Four, and give them a decent shot in a 6 vs. 11 or 7 vs. 10 first-round game.”

In the latest bracketology, Lunardi has North Carolina as a 12 seed, playing BYU in one of the First Four matchups. That was before the Quad 1 win against Clemson as well.

Outside of the Duke and Virginia Tech games, UNC has home games against Florida State, Pitt, Louisville, and Syracuse. They will just have one other road game, traveling to North Carolina State.

Win those games and the Tar Heels will be dancing.