North Carolina forecast: Tar Heels looking for another strong season

North Carolina was hit with a few major personnel losses following its 8-4 2020 season. Despite this, Phil Steele expects another strong season from the Tar Heels.

Offensive forecast

North Carolina loses its top two running backs in Javonte Williams and Michael Carter, but Tennessee transfer running back Ty Chandler helps offset those losses. Chandler will not be able to replicate the more than 2,400 yards and 28 touchdowns that Williams and Carter combined for in 2020. He is capable of doing damage, but he can’t replicate those numbers single-handedly.

Receivers Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome also moved on, but North Carolina has some speed and skill left in its receiving group. Khafre Brown is the team’s leading returning receiver, posting 15 receptions for 337 yards and two touchdowns in 2020. Beau Corrales, Garrett Walston and Emery Simmons each caught at least 13 passes last season and each of them returns.

North Carolina returns all starters from a good offensive line. Overall, there are still plenty of weapons to work with for star quarterback Sam Howell. They averaged 537 yards and 41.7 points per game in 2020. The offense might see a small dip, but Howell gives the offense a chance to be an elite one. Even if it isn’t as dominant, they should have another strong offensive season according to Steele.

Defensive forecast

The Tar Heels defensive line returns a ton of experience and impressive talent. The linebackers lose Chazz Surratt, and that’s a big hit. There is depth around the linebackers, but losing Surratt is a major blow to this defense. If it can stay healthy, the North Carolina secondary is impressive. Head coach Mack Brown had high expectations for it in 2020, but its inability to stay healthy resulted in struggles down the stretch.

Outside of Surratt, the Tar Heels return 10 starters on defense and eight of their nine leading tacklers. There is enough experience, depth, and talent there to offset the big loss. Steele thinks that this could be one of the best defensive units that UNC has seen in years.

2021 outlook

If North Carolina can play a little more consistently in 2021, they are likely to be among the best teams in the ACC. Eight wins were the highest total in Chapel Hill since 2016. Steele expects them to have another strong season in 2021. Despite some major losses from the 2020 team, there is immense talent on the roster and the Tar Heels are in a good spot to continue contending.