Breaking down the 2023 North Carolina season using the over/under

North Carolina possesses a player expected to be a top-two pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Quarterback Drake Maye has a lot of fans, with many slotting him just behind USC‘s Caleb Williams. Usually, having a player of Maye’s caliber equates to a ton of on-the-field success.

On3’s J.D. PicKell believes North Carolina will be the opposite, though. Oddsmakers have pegged the over/under for the Tar Heels at 8.5. PicKell is as big of a Drake Maye fan as anyone out there but the UNC defense is just too big of a question mark for him to push them to at least nine wins.

“You got Drake Maye so that’s really exciting,” PicKell said. “You have Mack Brown who, historically, is one of the best coaches in college football. And I love Drake Maye. I think he’s one of the best players in college football. The unfortunate reality for North Carolina is Drake Maye isn’t playing defense.

“They might be better than they were last year defensively but I think they had six wins by one score. So, I understand the hype around North Carolina and I’m not here to say North Carolina is not going to be a good team. But that number feels a little bit rich to me. I don’t think they will hit the over on that number.”

North Carolina gave up over 30 points per game last season, finishing No. 102 in scoring defense. Virginia Tech had the lowest total in a matchup, only being able to put up 10 points. Everyone else scored at least 21 against the Tar Heels.

Tough schedule hampers North Carolina for Andy Staples

When looking at the over/under of teams, perusing through the schedule is an important task. On3’s Andy Staples decided to do exactly that but North Carolina fans will not be too happy with the result.

Game No. 1 will be against South Carolina, a program in the SEC with a ton of momentum with head coach Shane Beamer. While they avoid Florida State in the ACC, three other regional rivalries could cause a ton of headaches.

Staples is with PicKell — North Carolina under 8.5 wins in 2023.

“They open with South Carolina in Charlotte,” Staples said. “That’s going to be tough. Look at what they drew within the (ACC). They got Clemson, they don’t have to play Florida State. But they got to place NC State at the end of the season, as usual… The closing stretch of Clemson, NC State is going to be tough. And Duke, under Mike Elko, has proven to be pretty interesting. They go to Georgia Tech — Georgia Tech beat ’em last year.

“I think under 8.5 doesn’t feel that crazy to me because unless you can show me how they dramatically improved on defense — until I see that, I can’t be confident.”