Predicting ceiling, floor for North Carolina in 2024 season

North Carolina no longer has a guaranteed future pro at quarterback for the first time in several years, but there’s optimism the Tar Heels could be as good, if not better, than they were a year ago.

On3’s Andy Staples spoke with Roddy Jones on an On3 YouTube live stream Memorial Day morning and the two broke down the floor and ceiling of every ACC team, including North Carolina. They don’t see a tremendously wide range of outcomes, but they think the Heels could very well be sniffing ACC title contention if luck breaks right.

So take a look below at everything Staples and Jones had to say on behalf of North Carolina for this coming season.

Ceiling: 9-3

Staples and Jones both believed themselves to be a bit higher on the Tar Heels than the general consensus.

“Roddy, I feel like people are very down on North Carolina this year. The more I think about, the more I’m like, ‘you know what, they might be just as good as last year,'” said Staples.

Jones was in total agreement, explaining why the UNC personnel is still pretty strong.

“I know Drake Maye and his departure leaves a massive hole, and Tez Walker’s gone, but they got a lot of production from guys like JJ Jones last year. That tight end room is as good as you’ll find in this league with John Copenhaver, Bryson Nesbit, with Jake Johnson coming over. And they’ve got the best running back in the league.”

“They feel good about the offensive line, they re-upped on the OL with a bunch of transfers. And then Geoff Collins on defense is going to be interesting, because he does a lot defensively.”

Staples also noted the Collins hire as a reason to believe in North Carolina next season.

“I think the Geoff Collins defensive coordinator hire is going to prove to be one of the more impactful coordinator hires of the offseason. He’s a good defensive coordinator. When the man’s calling a defense, the defense plays pretty well.”

If the Collins hire works out, and that returning talent takes a leap, then Jones can envision a pretty darn good year for the Heels: “I look at this North Carolina team, I think ceiling-wise, they’re probably a 9-3 team.”

Floor: 7-5

When it comes to North Carolina’s window of outcomes, Roddy Jones only sees a few games of difference between the best and worst-case scenarios this coming fall.

“I think the floor is like 7-5. Like, I think this team is right sort of in that 7-9 win range, because the talent’s there, man,” said Jones. Staples was right there with him.

“Yep. 9-3 and 7-5 is exactly where I had them too. Got to beat Minnesota in that first game. It’s a little bit of a mystery there, but all the predictions, ‘Oh, Mack (Brown) is gonna hang it up after this year because it’s going to be so tough’ — I don’t think it’s going to be that tough for him this year.”

In fact, Andy Staples believes that while this team could have lower expectations and a lower ceiling overall, they may be able to perform better relative to what fans are hoping.

“I think the pressure of having a top-five pick at quarterback is worse than what you’re dealing with this year. I think you’re going in with lower expectations, but you’re probably going in, across the board, with as much talent as you had.”

For Jones, he just needs to see UNC find a way to beat some teams they’ve recently had trouble with.

“There’s just something about some of the teams they play. They can’t beat Georgia Tech, they can’t beat Virginia, they can’t beat NC State. I think they get one of those this year. There’s a boogeyman with some of those.”

Win some of those games, and UNC could very well creep closer to that 9-3 number.