Is North Dakota State's Grant Nelson truly a unicorn?

Two weeks ago, social media exploded when highlight clips of North Dakota State junior Grant Nelson circulated. The 120-second clip showcased an array of change of direction dribbles and footwork, many ending in athletic dunks at the rim.

Nelson is a 6-foot-11 forward that not many had heard of prior to this highlight circulating. Now there is talk about Nelson being a potential draft pick.

I wanted to take a quick dive into his game beyond the two-minute reel to see just what his game looks like.

Grant Nelson is one of the most interesting prospects in the 2023 NBA Draft. He’s 6’11 but handles and moves like a guard and he’s a really good athlete as well. He’s currently averaging 16/8/2 and 2 blocks a game. He’s also shooting well shooting 51% from the field. pic.twitter.com/mziL256LB7

— KJ (@Kjpistons) January 10, 2023

Nelson’s frame

This is where a lot of the intrigue begins with Grant Nelson. Many of his movements on camera have the fluidity of someone in the 6-foot-6 range. The North Dakota State junior is listed at 6-foot-11 and 235 pounds. I have not been able to find exact measurements, but the wing span looks lengthy.

Guarding mostly fours at North Dakota State, opponents have shot only 40.2 percent from the field when guarded by him. This is an interesting situation where the numbers and the eye test may conflict a little. Because he does seem a step slow in reacting on the defensive end, with some hip stiffness when asked to open up.

However, at his size, he carries an impressive 5.5 block percentage this season, averaging 1.6 per game. Nelson also collected three total blocks in the Bison’s two high major games this season, against Kansas and Arkansas.

There is defensive intrigue, but definitely, some question marks in play.

Nelson’s offensive game

This is the part of Grant Nelson’s game that created the stir. In the video, we see an array of change of direction dribbles and perimeter iso’s. And that is a part of his game; however, Nelson seems to be most effective when posting up.

Twenty-four percent of his play types on the floor are post-ups. Sixteen percent are iso. However, both of these together help to paint his picture of intrigue. Nelson is a good vertical athlete with straight-line pop. He does have a crafty handle for someone 6-foot-11, but he also has good footwork.

Nelson scores 1.538 points per possession and shoots a staggering 74.7 percent when finishing at the rim. Both the post-ups and iso’s are generally play calls that culminate with finishes at the rim. Clearly, this is a strong area for him.

Nelson is great in transition and crafty, with some pop in the open floor. Facing up and playing off two and three dribbles, he moves confidently and fluidly toward the rim. He has an effective handle with some counters when his pathway gets cut off. He also sets a good target on the block, where he has nice footwork and an array of post moves, counters, and feel.

However, in a league [the NBA] where many of the 6-foot-11 players can slide their feet and where defenses are set to protect the rim, Nelson’s inability to shoot stunts his effectiveness. Nelson is shooting just 19.4 percent in catch and shoot situations and 23.2 percent on jump shots, as a whole, this season.

While Nelson is shooting 62.2 percent from two, he is also shooting 19.6 percent from three and 67.5 percent from the free throw line.

Flashes or substance

This is an interesting one here, as Grant Nelson has literally come from way off the radar to being a viral-type sensation. The unicorn status of his sizzle reel has created a lot of buzz throughout the industry. And rightfully so, when you put together a collection of his best clips and add in the context he is 6-foot-11 and 235 pounds, there is a lot to like.

However, you do have some questions when studying the film. The load on the jump shot is lengthy, which leads to inconsistent releases and balance points on his shots from range. He has incredible touch around the rim, and his patience and footwork on the block are truly impressive. Being a face-up threat, however, the jump shot needs to tighten.

There is also the handle and passing. Nelson does show flashes as a playmaker. He makes good reads and has good touch on his passes. However, there is a career 16.5 turnover percentage mark with a 23.3 usage. His counting numbers this season are 1.7 assists to 2.8 turnovers per game. The reads are there, but the execution can fall short at times.

Defensively he is at his best the closer to the rim he is. The question of lateral fluidity would put him best defending in a drop-type system as he moves forward.

In his biggest matchups, Nelson performed well this season, averaging 14.0 points and 7.5 rebounds against Arkansas and Kansas. His team started this year 0-8 and has since gone 6-2, including wins in their last five.

If the past ten NBA Drafts have shown us anything, it is that mid-majors can and will be drafted in the first round. A look back through the last ten NBA Drafts also shows only Patrick Baldwin, a one-and-done player who was a consensus five-star and decided to play for his dad, was drafted in the first round coming from a mid-major team with a losing record.

There is some intrigue, with excellent flashes and clear production. It will be fun to watch the year play out for Nelson and listen to the buzz he builds come draft night in June.