Explaining why Notre Dame is better off with 12-team CFP vs. proposed 14-team playoff

After reports dropped last week noting that expansion talks were on the table for a 14-team College Football Playoff, which could include up to four automatic bids for teams from the SEC and Big Ten, Notre Dame fans had to worry whether they were getting left out of the mix.

During his live show on the On3 YouTube channel Monday morning, Andy Staples and Blue and Gold’s Tyler Horka broke down ND’s plight in a potential 14-team playoff, with Staples explaining why that rumored model would be bad news for an independent like the Fighting Irish.

“You could have as many as four auto bids for the SEC, four for the Big Ten, and then two each for the ACC and Big 12, and then one more for the highest-ranked Group of Five team. I’m bad at math, but that sounds like 13 of 14 spots.”

Horka commented that in such a scenario, the Irish might be the last ones standing in a game of musical chairs.

“We’re talking about seats at the table, that’s the cliche that a lot of people like to use. Notre Dame is literally watching these chairs get filled up while it’s just sitting there. That’s when this gets scary.”

Weirdly, Horka makes the case that the current 12-team playoff model actually gives Notre Dame a better shot than a 14-teamer that shoehorns in a slew of Big Ten/SEC teams.

“Right now, this is set up perfectly. Seven at-large spots. I mean, when you look back to when Brian Kelly was with this program, winning 10 games every single year five years in a row — you look at where Notre Dame finished in the polls those years, they’re going to make a 12-team playoff. As soon as you go to 14 teams, and the SEC is taking up a third of those, and then the Big Ten, that’s over half, that gets scary.”

Staples added that Notre Dame would “have to be 11-1 or 12-0, if there’s only one at-large.” If that’s the case, and 10-2 or 9-3 teams out of the SEC and Big Ten are regularly making the 14-team playoff while 10-2 and 9-3 Notre Dame teams are sitting home and watching, then perhaps that’s a factor which could motivate them to join one of the power conferences.

However, Staples adds that, “anything that forces Notre Dame towards a conference, I think, is problematic for them.”

At some point, though, there may not be a choice. “It’s money and access to a College Football Playoff,” says Tyler Horka of ND’s priorities. But if the access to the CFP gets tougher and tougher without joining a conference, well, ultimately winning titles is the goal at Notre Dame, per Horka, so a tough decision would need to be made.