ESPN College GameDay weighs Notre Dame's chances to make College Football Playoff

Notre Dame is arguably playing its best football of the season in mid-November and is firmly a part of the College Football Playoff conversation. However, the best the Fighting Irish can be seeded is fifth if they win out.

ESPN analytics gives Notre Dame a 67% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 12 — but what happens if they lose another game? The crew on ESPN’s College GameDay shared their opinions on how large the margin for error is for the Irish this late in the season.

“I think the natural reaction would be no because they lose to Northern Illinois, but they have two wins over two currently ranked top 25 teams,” Pat McAfee said during the broadcast. “That’s a big deal. I think whenever they’re looking at the strength of schedule — and we all know coming into this year, they had no opportunity to be one of the champions because they’re independent. If you think about an independent schedule, that’s what happens whenever you get a little weaker product and then you lose one of those, it all ends.”

McAfee pointed out that since the loss to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard has scored 21 touchdowns compared to one turnover — not to mention leading his team to back-to-back 50-point offensive showcases against a previously ranked Navy team and Florida State, respectively.

Desmond Howard believes the win against Texas A&M — who would be in the SEC Championship game if the season ended today — and loss to NIU “cancel each other out.” He agreed with McAfee’s sentiment that Notre Dame’s independence might make it harder for the Irish to be favored over other two-loss teams that are in power conferences.

Nick Saban was right there with them, noting that while head coach Marcus Freeman has his guys rallied they can’t take their foot off the gas and run the table across the rest of the regular season.

“I think we’re all kind of seeing the same thing,” co-host Kirk Herbstreit said. “The Northern Illinois game hurts them. What’s exciting is that you don’t have the conference championship — you have three games to think about. You’re going to be favored in all of them, and you’d be hosting a playoff game. … It’s right in front of you. Win your games and host a playoff game.”

Notre Dame has matchups against Virginia, No. 24 Army and USC left on its schedule. Looking to remain at one loss heading into the postseason, the Irish will kick off its matchup against the Cavaliers at 3:30 p.m. ET live on NBC.