Greg McElroy analyzes ceiling, floor for Notre Dame in 2024

Notre Dame enters the expanded playoff era as one of the only teams focusing solely on record since they can’t earn an automatic berth as an independent. Still, according to Greg McElroy, they should be just fine as far as resumé based on how many wins he’s projecting for them in 2024.

McElroy assessed the Fighting Irish’s ceiling and floor on a recent episode of ‘Always College Football’. He paid them a pretty good compliment to start with, marking Notre Dame as one of this season’s favorites, even though their ceilings may not be as close as the floors are to him.

“Notre Dame’s floor is as high as Ohio State,” McElroy stated. “I think their floor is. I just don’t think their ceiling is as high as Ohio State.”

Notre Dame is 19-7 overall through two seasons under Marcus Freeman. The second year saw a one-win improvement but both the offensive and defensive units developed into the top 10 nationally.

That includes a defense that McElroy is very high on for this year. As for the offense, he’s one position group away from being very positive about them as well.

“If you look at what they have from a personnel standpoint defensively, they have one of the best pound-for-pound defenses in the country at all three levels,” McElroy said. “Feel very good about what they have at that position.”

“Until proven otherwise, there are still reasons to be doubtful about whether or not their receiver corps is going to be really, really good this year – until proven otherwise. Now, we’ve taken that bait before where we’ve said their receivers are going to be head and shoulders better than they were a year ago. And, last year, I think, if you look at the group collectively? There were moments of really good play but there were also moments of inconsistency as well,” McElroy added. “I think the tight ends have a chance to be excellent. Love the tandem that you have at running back – that’s going to be a great group. The offensive line, with the exception of the tackle spot, from guard to guard, should be in really good shape.”

As for an official number on the floor and ceiling up in South Bend, nine victories or right at double digits is the worst that McElroy has for the Fighting Irish’s year. The best is only up from there with a playoff berth well within reach then.

However, one game is going to determine a ton about whether Notre Dame goes high or low on that for McElroy.

“Looking at where Notre Dame is at, their floor is crazy high,” said McElroy. “They should be at least 10 wins, maybe nine. At the very, very worst, they’re at nine.

“Ten, I think, is highly likely and really comes down to whether or not they beat the Aggies in Week One. If they beat the Aggies? Ten at the bare minimum. If they don’t beat the Aggies? It could fall to nine,” McElroy thought. “That’s a huge one hinging on the August 31st game at Texas A&M there in College Station.”

Most predictions and odds have Notre Dame at or just past the 10-win plateau. McElroy’s does as well with him high on them winning at least that many in hopes of making their push for the CFP.

“I can’t envision a scenario where they wouldn’t win nine games,” McElroy stated. “I think they’re going to win 10, maybe more.”