Greg McElroy gives Marcus Freeman a 10% chance to win a national championship at Notre Dame

Notre Dame is entering year three under Marcus Freeman with a pair of quality seasons already on his record. The question now is if he can get them in legitimate contention, especially as an independent in an expanded playoff.

Greg McElroy determined the chances that Freeman ever wins a national title with the Fighting Irish during a recent episode of ‘Always College Football’. With respect to the previous coach, he thinks those odds might be better now with how this new staff led by Freeman has been able to recruit to South Bend so far.

“Marcus Freeman stepped into what I think is a really good spot. But, in many ways, he was the right guy for the time. That’s not a slight towards Brian Kelly whatsoever – I think the world of Brian Kelly, I just told you a couple minutes ago that I think Brian Kelly has a 50% chance of winning a national championship at LSU. What I didn’t tell you is I think Marcus Freeman’s ability to attract top-tier playmakers to Notre Dame might be even greater than that of his predecessor,” McElroy explained. “If you look at some of their recruiting and the way they’ve been able to attack the portal? I think they’re well-positioned to fair very, very well here in the near future.”

“I just cannot drive home the point enough for the amount of respect I have for Marcus Freeman, the roster, the talent, and the way he has been able to attract players here these last couple years,” said McElroy.

However, that probability takes a dip for McElroy when you consider the new-look College Football Playoff.

Notre Dame could definitely make it in most years in one of those dozen slots. It’s just that McElroy wonders how they’ll fair over several games against the type of teams in the playoff, especially considering how they did during their pair of appearances in the four-team field.

“Like I said earlier, sometimes it’s about the place more so than the person. I think Marcus Freeman is a big-time, big-time head coach. I just think it has been very challenging for Notre Dame when they get into the playoff,” said McElroy. “In a 12-team playoff? Remember, they will not, at least depending on how long we keep this format, get a first-round bye because they will not be a conference champion. Can they win a game in the first round, second round, semis, and national championship? Can they win four consecutive games against championship-caliber competition? That’s a legitimate question. We know they can get there. I feel strongly that they can get there and will get there. They might even get there this year. But, when they get there, what will they do? Because they’ve fallen far short of expectations in some of those matchups in the past.”

“When you have to play in round one – Clemson in round one perhaps? Maybe, in round two, you have to go play Alabama. In round three you have to play Georgia. Then, for the national championship, you have to play Ohio State,” McElroy thought. “Will Notre Dame’s roster be deep enough? Will they be talented enough to be able to play up to the level of competition multiple times throughout a deeper playoff format?”

With all that reasoned, McElroy gave Freeman a 10% chance to win the first title for Notre Dame since 1988. That number is more than just to him considering the optimism he has for Freeman while also weighing the problematic path that they could find themselves on.

“I put the percentage chance that he will win a national championship at Notre Dame at 10%,” said McElroy. “Still, I think, pretty good – pretty good.”

“10% is where I put it for Marcus Freeman but I still think that’s a pretty fair number,” McElroy said.