Greg McElroy leaning toward 9-3 record for Notre Dame in 2024

Notre Dame is entering an interesting year under Marcus Freeman. The Fighting Irish won 10 games in 2023, something they have done six out of the last seven years. However, early in Freeman’s tenure, he has not been able to propel Notre Dame into the College Football Playoff or national championship discussion.

Folks in South Bend are hoping that can change and will feel good heading into the 2024 season, especially with the 12-team playoff. The changes made on offense with Riley Leonard at quarterback and Mike Denbrock leaving LSU in favor of Notre Dame have brought a buzz. There is no automatic qualifying to the CFP for the program but the hopes of earning an at-large bid are there.

ESPN’s Greg McElroy believes multiple losses are on the schedule though, predicting Notre Dame to finish with a 9-3 record. He did not list exactly which games would fall sour but does push back on the idea of 10-2 being the Fighting Irish’s “floor.”

“I’m thinking, right now, 9-3 for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish,” McElroy said. “Some people on this show think 10-2 is the floor. I think that’s a little bit presumptuous because we have seen Notre Dame lose games they shouldn’t lose in the past.”

The ACC deal will always be there and does provide a marquee matchup with Florida State in South Bend on Nov. 9. Looking elsewhere, Notre Dame does have a difficult slate for non-ACC games.

Texas A&M at Kyle Field will be the season opener, seeing a familiar Mike Elko on the opposing sideline. And then there is the rivalry game with USC to close out the year in Los Angeles. Two potential CFP make-or-break games for Notre Dame.

“I think their odds of making the playoffs in (2024) is around 40%,” McElroy said. “Which, by the way, is pretty dang good. Especially with a nonconference road game to Texas A&M early. A couple others tricky road games like Georgia Tech, Purdue, and then at (USC) with Florida State coming to you.”

Notre Dame has had two CFP appearances since the model was adopted in 2017. If the 12-team was around from the beginning, you could add another two to the resume. Yes, all of those seasons occurred under Brian Kelly but Freeman has kept the consistency there.

Would 9-3 be enough to get Notre Dame into the field in 2024? While we do not know for sure, past CFP rankings tell us it’s unlikely. Getting to the 10-2 mark would be a whole lot safer if a marquee win or two is sprinkled in there.