Ohio State in the CFP? ESPN’s FPI rankings predicts every game

Ohio State football is expected to finish with an 11.5-1.4 record, according to ESPN’s FPI rankings. The Buckeyes rank No. 4 in the country but are projected to finish with the second-best record in college football thanks to the No. 59 strength of schedule. Ohio State is a heavy favorite in every game this season and has a 21.9% chance of winning out.

The Buckeye’s will play just two teams with an FPI rating above 10, with three opponents below zero. Half the schedule is ranked in the top 50, with one team outside the top 100. Ohio State will not have room for error through most of the season, but the FPI predictions do not see them slipping up.

Here is a look at Ohio State’s chances in every game this season:

at Minnesota: Ohio State opens the season with an 87.7% chance to win the first Big Ten matchup of the season. The Thursday night opener on the road ranks as the Buckeyes’ sixth toughest game.

Oregon: The Buckeyes have an 84.6% chance to take down Oregon at home in week two. The Ducks are Ohio State’s highest-ranked opponent but only the fourth toughest matchup.

Tulsa: Ohio State has a 96.5% chance to beat Tulsa. Tulsa is one of three opponents on the schedule with a negative FPI rating.

Akron: The Buckeyes have a 99.7% chance to beat Akron, the highest odds of the season. Akron has the worst FPI rating of any team on the schedule at -22.4, ranking No. 126 in the country.

at Rutgers: Ohio State has a 93.3% chance to beat Rutgers on the road. This concludes the Buckeyes run of three games against teams with negative RPI ratings.

Maryland: The Buckeyes have a 94.9% chance to win against Maryland. The Terrapins rank No. 61 in the FPI rankings.

at Indiana: Ohio State has an 82.7% chance to beat Indiana, the third-lowest odds of the season. The Buckeyes will have two weeks to prepare for this road test with the bye week.

Penn State: With an 82% chance of victory, the Buckeyes face their second-toughest challenge of the season against Penn State. The Nittany Lions are the second-best team in the Big Ten, ranked No. 13 overall.

at Nebraska: Ohio State has an 86.8% chance on the road against Nebraska. This game concludes the toughest three-game stretch of the season.

Purdue: The Buckeyes have a 93.1% chance to defeat Purdue at home. Ohio State plays its first game with 90% odds in nearly a month.

Michigan State: Ohio State has a 92.4% chance of winning against the Spartans. Michigan State is the No. 45 team in the country with an FPI rating of 4.6

at Michigan: The Buckeyes have an 81.3% chance to beat Michigan in a rivalry game to end the season. Ohio State will face its toughest road test against the No. 28 team.

Conclusion:

Ohio State has better than an 80% chance in every game this season, with a 21.9% chance to win out. The Buckeye’s FPI rating of 22.5 is the best in the Big Ten and the prediction gives them a 70.1% chance of winning the conference. As a projected one-loss team and conference champion, Ohio State will be favored to make the College Football Playoffs.