ESPN predicts every game outcome on Ohio State's 2024 schedule
Michigan won the national championship last year. Ohio State has the right pieces to answer back with a national title run of its own.
But, first, the Buckeyes have to get through the regular season with a College Football Playoff resume. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is projecting how the Buckeyes will fare in their 12-game slate.
Here’s a game-by-game breakdown of the FPI’s outlook for Ohio State’s 2024 campaign.
Aug. 31: Ohio State vs. Akron — 98.7% chance of win
Ohio State opens the season against Akron. It’s the first of three non-conference games the Buckeyes shouldn’t just win but dominate. The last time Ohio State played Akron was Week 4 of the 2021 season. Kyle McCord, then a true freshman, started in place of an injured C.J. Stroud and quarterbacked the Buckeyes to a 59-7 win.
Ohio State should clear the Zips with a similar margin of victory this time around.
Sept. 7: Ohio State vs. Western Michigan — 98.2% chance of win
Although the Buckeyes don’t have a marquee non-conference matchup on the schedule, they do have a night game on tap for Week 2: They’ll host another MAC school, Western Michigan, under the lights of Ohio Stadium.
Once again, Ohio State should take of business by halftime, giving starting quarterback Will Howard a chance to rest and other quarterbacks, namely redshirt sophomore Devin Brown and true freshman Julian Sayin, an opportunity to gain experience in a season that could be as long as 17 games.
Sept. 21: Ohio State vs. Marshall — 96.4% chance of win
After playing Western Michigan, the Buckeyes get their first of two bye weeks. Then comes a matchup against Marshall. The teams first met in 2004. Back then, a Jim Tressel-led squad had to squeak out a 24-21 win over the Thundering Herd, complete with a game-winning, 54-yard Mike Nugent field goal.
Things shouldn’t be that close — or anywhere close, for that matter — 20 years later when Ohio State and Marshall face off this season.
Sept. 28: Ohio State at Michigan State — 91.5% chance of win
The Buckeyes open Big Ten play at Michigan State in late September. The Spartans are looking to rebuild under new head coach Jonathan Smith. Being generally competitive in the Big Ten during Year 1 is one goal for Michigan State, and doing so against a loaded Ohio State team is an entirely different challenge.
Winners of eight straight games in the series, the Buckeyes have especially owned the Spartans in each of the last seven meetings. Ohio State has won those games with scores of 48-3 (2017), 26-6 (2018), 34-10 (2019), 52-12 (2020), 56-7 (2021), 49-20 (2022) and 38-3 (2023).
Oct. 5: Ohio State vs. No. 25 Iowa — 87.0% chance of win
The beginning of the 2022 Buckeyes season marched to a similar, albeit not identical, cadence: Following a tough, season-opening showdown with Notre Dame, Ohio State got Arkansas State, Toledo, Wisconsin and Rutgers — capping a stretch of five straight home games to start the year — and then went to Michigan State before hosting Iowa.
This year, the Buckeyes will open the season with three consecutive home games, then they’ll have their road trip to East Lansing and then they’ll welcome in the Hawkeyes. Iowa rounded out the preseason AP Top 25, but it has a lot to prove offensively with new coordinator Tim Lester.
Oct. 12: Ohio State at No. 3 Oregon — 34.5% chance of win
Ah, the game everyone in Columbus and Eugene is waiting for: Ohio State-Oregon, which is currently a No. 2/3 heavyweight match headlining a fantastic slate of college football on Oct. 12. The Buckeyes will enter Autzen Stadium and face their first stiff test of the season. Led by fast-rising head coach Dan Lanning and two-time transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel, the Ducks are a trendy national title pick.
The thing is, this early October meeting could be the first of two, or even three, games between Ohio State and Oregon this season. They could meet again in the Big Ten Championship and/or in the CFP.
Oct. 26: Ohio State vs. Nebraska — 91.4% chance of win
Ohio State has its second and final regular season bye week after its trip out west. The week after that, the Buckeyes will be back in the Horseshoe for a game against Nebraska. It’s possible the Cornhuskers are ranked by this point of the season. There’s a world where they even start the year 7-0. Nebraska, after all, gets things going with games against UTEP, Colorado, Northern Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers and Indiana.
If Nebraska is ranked, and undefeated, heading into Columbus with true freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola — who originally committed to Ohio State — running the show, this game is going to get a lot more interesting.
Nov. 2: Ohio State at No. 8 Penn State — 50.8% chance of win
Ohio State-Penn State the first weekend of November won’t feature a “White Out,” but it is the “Helmet Stripe Game.” And that theme achieves a pretty similar effect: Four sections of Beaver Stadium wear blue, mimicking the “stripe” in Penn State’s famous helmet, and the rest of the Penn State crowd wears white. Point is, like always, this head-to-head is circled on the calendar for Nittany Lions fans everywhere.
The Buckeyes have won seven straight games in the series, but, like last year, Penn State has the defense to at least make this matchup intriguing. If quarterback Drew Allar thrives under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, this game really could be the 50/50 toss-up the FPI projects.
Nov. 9: Ohio State vs. Purdue — 93.3% chance of win
Purdue was picked to finish last in the Cleveland.com preseason Big Ten media poll. Even if the Boilermakers exceed those expectations in the second year of the Ryan Walters era, tussling with Ohio State will be the tallest of tasks.
Purdue has pulled off upset victories over the Buckeyes in Ross-Ade Stadium. But Ohio State hasn’t lost to the Boilermakers in Columbus this century.
Nov. 16: Ohio State at Northwestern — 87.8% chance of win
Two seasons ago, Ohio State played in the gusty winds of Ryan Field, which reached north of 40 miles per hour and whirled abandoned ponchos into the sky throughout a dreary afternoon slop fest that the Buckeyes escaped with a 21-7 win.
Now, Ohio State’s going to Wrigley Field to play the Wildcats in mid-November. Inclement weather could again be in the forecast. Who knows? That could be Northwestern’s best shot at a diamond in the rough, if you will.
Nov. 23: Ohio State vs. Indiana — 94.6% chance of win
New Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti is trying to punch above his program’s weight. He can do that without beating Ohio State in Year 1. Indiana pulled out all the stops in last year’s season opener, even the triple-option, and still lost to the Buckeyes, 23-3. And that was at home and against an Ohio State team that, uncharacteristically, lagged on offense.
This year, Indiana’s going to the ‘Shoe. Granted there’s new leadership in the program, but the last time the Hoosiers made that trip, they lost, 56-14. Here’s something cool: Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke enjoyed a five-year career at Ohio University, which is just a 75-minute drive from Columbus.
Nov. 30: Ohio State vs. No. 9 Michigan — 74.2% chance of win
The Ohio State regular season boils down to this game, The Game. Michigan has won three straight games against the Buckeyes for the first time since 1995-97. That stretch included a runaway win at Ohio State in 2022, marking the Wolverines’ first victory in Columbus since the 2000 season.
A Big Ten title has escaped the Buckeyes each of the last three years because of their shortcomings against Michigan. It’s also cost them two trips to the CFP. This game means everything for Ohio State. Even though the Buckeyes can make a 12-team CFP, and even win the Big Ten, without a win over Michigan this year, enormous pressure is on head coach Ryan Day and his program to deliver Nov. 30 against the Wolverines, especially after Michigan won it all last season.
ESPN’s FPI final record projection for Ohio State: 10.2-2.2
ESPN’s FPI projects Ohio State will win approximately 10 games in the regular season. Notably, the Buckeyes have won 11 straight games back-to-back years before falling to Michigan.
The only game the FPI gives the Buckeyes less than a 50% chance of winning is their Oct. 12 road date with Oregon. But it’s important to remember that the FPI basically sees Ohio State’s road game against Penn State on Nov. 2 as a toss-up.
The program expectation for the Buckeyes, though, is to run the table.