Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Ohio State Buckeyes in 2024

Few teams in recent college football memory have loaded up like Ohio State this offseason, setting the stage for an all-or-nothing year on the field in 2024-25.

The Buckeyes are in an odd place with head coach Ryan Day, who has yet to finish a season with more than two losses while making the College Football Playoff title game in 2020 and earning a spot in the field in three of his five seasons at the helm. However, the lack of a national title and three straight losses to Michigan loom large ahead of a make or break season this fall.

The objective is clear for Ohio State fans. But what should they actually expect as a realistic ceiling and floor for their squad in 2024-25? On3’s Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire examined that question on the On3 YouTube channel Monday morning. Take a look at what they had to say:

Ceiling: National Championship

Andy Staples came out of the gate declaring that the “ceiling is a national title” and “anything other than a national title is an utter failure.” He asks and answers: “How can you say it’s an utter failure if you don’t win the national title? Because nobody’s been set up like this for a long time. It’s the best roster in the country.”

Cody Bellaire chimed in after that statement to explain why this OSU group is so loaded, especially with the three major transfers brought in this offseason.

“You bring in Will Howard, one of the more sought-after quarterbacks in the portal,” he noted. “He takes care of the football, he’s a factor in the run game — more of a trailer than a truck, I think you would say at the quarterback position. But he brings a different element to this offense.”

Bellaire continued, addressing the other key additions and the overall roster talent.

“They bring in Quinshon Judkins to have one of the most ridiculous running back duos in the country. You added one of the best players in the sport in Caleb Downs from Alabama.

“You return Emeka Egbuka, you bring in Jeremiah Smith and you return a lot of firepower on this defense. This is a team that will not allow a lot of points and I think they are going to run the football. I think this is their shot to win a national title if you’re Ohio State.”

To add icing on the cake, Staples pointed out: “Oh by the way, Chip Kelly is your primary play caller.”

Bellaire responded: “He left a head coaching job to call your plays. Go win the thing. Just do it. I think this is the moment for them to make it to the playoff and win the whole thing.”

Floor: Playoff berth

As for the worst-case scenario? Well, Staples believes: “Ohio State is the only team in America where the floor is still a playoff berth.”

But Bellaire noted the true worst possible outcome for Ohio State in the regular season: “What happens if they lose to Michigan again?” he asked. Barring a CFP title victory in the months afterward, Staples believes another Michigan loss could mean the end for Ryan Day in Columbus.

“I think you have to go get another job if you’re Ryan Day. I’m not kidding about that. I don’t think they fire him. I think, if you’re him, you’re just like ‘I gotta go, I’m sorry.’ The crazy thing is you could still lose to Michigan and still win the national title. So I think if you did that you’re okay, but if you didn’t do that, you’d just have to go find another job.”

It’s all about that Michigan game and their performance in the playoff, because Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire both believe OSU has just about zero shot of missing the field.

“There are no excuses if this team does not win the national championship. So, ceiling: national championship; floor: 10-2 and a playoff berth,” said Staples.