ESPN predicts every game outcome on Oklahoma's 2024 schedule

Oklahoma football will enter a new era in 2024 as the Sooners join the SEC with a number of new opponents on the schedule. OU will face a much tougher slate than it did in the Big 12, and ESPN has predicted with its Football Power Index (FPI) rating the likelihood of winning each game.

The Sooners finished 10-3 last year, but given the increased strength of opponents, the FPI projects them to finish somewhere in the range of an 8-4 or 9-3 season. It also gives them a 36.4% chance of making the College Football Playoff.

OU should be stout on defense with the return of key names such as linebacker Danny Stutsman and safety Billy Bowman. The real key will be how sophomore and former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold fares in his first season as starting quarterback. If he plays above average, Oklahoma could certainly outperform this prediction.

Aug. 30: Oklahoma vs. Temple — 98.7% chance of victory

Oklahoma kicks off the third season of the Brent Venables era on a Friday night in Norman against Temple. The Sooners should have little trouble putting away an Owls team that hasn’t won more than three games since 2019 and finished 3-9 this past season.

The FPI gives OU a 98.7% chance to win, so it would definitely be a shocking upset if Temple were to pull this one off. This will mark the third meeting all-time between Owls and Sooners, with last one coming in 1942. Temple actually won that game by a score of 14-7, so Oklahoma can retake the series advantage with a win.

Sept. 7: Oklahoma vs. Houston — 92.7% chance of victory

Oklahoma and Houston spent just one year together in the Big 12 last season, but did not play each other. That will change this year as they’ll meet for the first time since 2019, when the Sooners claimed a 48-31 victory.

The Cougars have a new head coach in Willie Fritz, who led Tulane to an AAC Championship in 2022. ESPN doesn’t like their chances in this game as OU should have a clear path to starting out 2-0.

Sept. 14: Oklahoma vs. Tulane — 91% chance of victory

The Sooners will turn around right after facing Fritz and take on his old team the very next week. These early three games should offer a solid opportunity for Arnold and his receivers to get into a groove, as they will open SEC play in Week 4.

The Green Wave are coming off of an 11-3 season but lose starting quarterback Michael Pratt. The player to watch in this one will be running back Makhi Hughes, who rushed for 1,378 yards and seven touchdowns this past season. Even so, the Sooners are likely too strong for Tulane to overcome, and ESPN likes them to be 3-0 entering conference play.

Sept. 21: Oklahoma vs. Tennessee — 59.9% chance of victory

Oklahoma’s first SEC conference game couldn’t have a more enticing storyline with Josh Heupel making his return to Norman as the Tennessee coach. Heupel led the Sooners to their most recent national championship in 2000 and was also an offensive coordinator at OU before being fired following the 2014 season.

He has led the Volunteers to a 27-12 record in three seasons, including going 9-4 this past season. Tennessee will also have a first-year starter at quarterback in Nico Iamaleava, another five-star from the 2023 class. ESPN predicts a close finish here, but likes the Sooners to win their first SEC game nonetheless.

Sept. 28: Oklahoma at Auburn — 62% chance of victory

After four straight home games to open the season, Oklahoma will travel to Jordan-Hare Stadium for the first time ever to face Auburn. The only other two meetings between the Sooners and Tigers occurred in the Sugar Bowl with OU winning both times.

Auburn is getting ready to enter its second season under coach Hugh Freeze after going 6-7 in his inaugural season. The Tigers return speedster Jarquez Hunter in the backfield after he rushed for 909 yards and seven touchdowns in 2023. ESPN still likes Oklahoma to continue its hot start here and begin the season 5-0.

Oct. 12: Oklahoma vs. Texas — 36.4% chance of victory

Although ESPN’s FPI likes Oklahoma to make it to October unbeaten, this is where things begin to get a lot tougher for the Sooners. They will meet rival Texas for the annual Red River Rivalry game in which anything can happen.

OU won the meeting between the two teams last season, but the Longhorns hold the 63-51-5 all-time advantage. They return quarterback Quinn Ewers and are an early favorite to make the College Football Playoff. That in mind, ESPN predicts this to be the Sooners’ first loss, but it could go either way.

Oct. 19: Oklahoma vs. South Carolina — 81.3% chance of victory

Oklahoma will return home after the Red River Rivalry to face South Carolina for the first time ever. The Gamecocks are preparing to enter their fourth season under coach Shane Beamer, who is a former Sooners assistant.

They will be led on offense by Arkansas transfer running back Rocket Sanders, who rushed for 1,443 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2022. ESPN still thinks OU can take care of business to bounce back in this one and bring its season record to 6-1.

Oct. 26: Oklahoma at Ole Miss — 53.5% chance of victory

This begins a tough stretch to close conference play as the Sooners will face teams ranked in the preseason top 25 in their final four SEC games. Ole Miss will certainly put the Oklahoma defense to the test with a high-powered offense led by quarterback Jaxson Dart and receivers Tre Harris and Juice Wells.

The Sooners and Rebels have met only one time in history with Ole Miss claiming the 1999 Independence Bowl with a 27-25 victory. ESPN predicts this year’s matchup to be one that could truly go either way, but gives a slight edge to the Sooners to pull of the road win.

Nov. 2: Oklahoma vs. Maine — 98.8% chance of victory

The Sooners will get a much-needed reprieve from the SEC slate when they take on Maine before gearing up for a tough closing schedule. The FCS school should be an easy win for the Sooners after finishing 2-9 a year ago.

This could be an opportunity for the starters to get some rest assuming Oklahoma runs away with the game like it should. If all of ESPN’s predictions are correct to this point, the Sooners would be 8-1 entering their final three games.

Nov. 9: Oklahoma at Missouri — 45.8% chance of victory

The Sooners will meet Missouri for the first time since 2011 when both were members of the Big 12. The Tigers are coming off of an 11-2 season and victory in the Fiesta Bowl that expectations sky high entering this year.

It should be an interesting matchup to watch receiver Luther Burden, who finished last season with 1,212 yards receiving and nine touchdowns, against a vaunted Oklahoma secondary. ESPN is giving a slight edge to Mizzou to win this game, but it’s essentially another toss up.

Nov. 23: Oklahoma vs. Alabama — 48.8% chance of victory

Two of the most storied programs in college football, Oklahoma and Alabama will meet for just the seventh time in history and third during the regular season. The Sooners hold a narrow 3-2-1 advantage in the all-time series, but the Crimson Tide won most recently in the 2018 Orange Bowl.

This year Alabama will be under a new head coach in Kalen DeBoer following the retirement of Nick Saban in the offseason. Starting quarterback Jalen Milroe does return, however, and ESPN gives the slight edge to the Crimson Tide even with OU being at home.

Nov. 30: Oklahoma at LSU — 52.4% chance of victory

Oklahoma will close its first season in the SEC with its first-ever trip to Tiger Stadium to take on LSU. The teams have met just three times in the past with the Tigers winning twice.

LSU was one of the top offenses in the country this past season but loses a good chunk of production entering the third season of Brian Kelly. They’ll still by no means be an easy win, especially on the road, but ESPN gives a slight edge to the Sooners to put their final record at 9-3.