Evaluating Oklahoma's chances in 2024, how Red River Rivalry vs. Texas could change the narrative

The nationwide conference realignment across college football this upcoming season comes with a variety of opinions regarding expectations for teams within new leagues. As several programs will make unprecedented debuts in new conferences starting in 2024.

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of those teams, joining the SEC alongside rival Texas this upcoming season in a year with plenty of question marks. But On3’s Andy Staples and Jesse Simonton believe that it’s not a matter of if the Sooners will be able to compete at a high level in the SEC, but when.

“Oklahoma will be competitive in the SEC, we’re just not sure they’re gonna be super competitive right now, right off the bat in the SEC, but we could be wrong,” Staples said. “They beat Texas last year, if they can beat Texas this year, they can be a playoff team.”

Oklahoma’s betting line for their win total next season sits at 7.5 according to FanDuel, a number that Simonton believes bettors with high optimism surrounding the Sooners should wager on for the over. As the expectations seem fairly low for the Sooners in their first season joining what most regard as college football’s most competitive conference.

“There does seem to be some skepticism about Oklahoma in 2024,” Simonton said. “Look at Oklahoma’s history, they’ve basically been a recession-proof program for almost 40 years outside of a small blip there in the early 90s. They have been a consistent winner, so betting against the Sooners would probably be a bad idea.”

Aside from their 2022 season, which was year one under head coach Brent Venables, Oklahoma has not had under a 7.5-win season since 1999. And while an eight-plus win season in 2024 may seem ahead of schedule for the Sooners in the eyes of some, there’s no question they showed flashes of being one of the best teams in the nation last season. Highlighted by their rivalry win over the Longhorns who competed in the College Football Playoff last season and will serve as a barometer for Oklahoma moving forward as they both join the SEC.

“I think they’re gonna be fine, but I don’t think they’re gonna be dominant right off the bat. But a lot of that has to do with how I feel about Texas. I think Texas is in a better place right now, more ready to compete for the national title right now,” Staples explained. “That said, they did play last year and Oklahoma won, so it’s not that big of a distinction.”

All eyes will be on the Sooners and Longhorns in the Red River Rivalry game per usual. But the stakes will be elevated and the outcome could be paramount for the winner in year one of not just the new look SEC, but the expanded College Football Playoff as well.