Explaining how Dillon Gabriel leaving impacted Oklahoma's over-under win total projection

Over on the On3 YouTube channel, Andy Staples welcomed Sooner Scoop’s Eddie Radosevich and George Stoia to break down the Oklahoma football over/under for 2024, which is… suspiciously low, perhaps?

Stoia and Radosevich pleaded that the regular season win total over/under was too low at 7.5 games, as it currently sits. But Andy Staples had a hypothesis for why the Sooners might be a little bit lower on the win total bets, posing the question: “If Dillon Gabriel were the starter again, do you think that over/under number would be different?”

Radosevich admitted that the QB change from what would be to be a sixth-year senior in Gabriel to an unproven youngster in Jackson Arnold likely did affect Vegas’ trust in this OU team in their first year of SEC play.

“I do. I think just having somebody back there at quarterback, and somebody as experienced as Dillon Gabriel, I think that would probably count for, I don’t know what the number is, but one (game), maybe a half, maybe even two,” he explained.

“So all of a sudden, you’re looking at an over/under of 9, 9.5, maybe 8.5-9. I think that, you know, it’s probably not as shocking as when you see the No. 7. Around here, that’s going to get people fired.”

Stoia agreed and believes the win total would be an entire game higher if it were merely Gabriel instead of a brand new name under center this coming fall. However, he said he’d hammer the over, since Stoia is quite high on the new Sooner QB1.

“I think the number, if Dillon was back, would probably be around 8.5, which I think is probably where it should be, and the reason I think that is because I’m a believer in Jackson Arnold. We’ve come on here Andy and said that, as much as Dillon Gabriel was a good quarterback for Oklahoma — and I think he’s going to be great for Oregon next year — the ceiling for Jackson Arnold is much higher.”

Better than Gabriel right off the bat? That’s a big ask but Stoia is confident that the talented Arnold will come through. And if he reaches his lofty potential early on? Well, then this Oklahoma team could be a contender.

“So, if Jackson Arnold all of a sudden becomes what we think he can be next year, then that win total, they should hit 7.5 very easily,” Stoia added. “They could hit 9-10 games and be talking about making the playoff. I think they will probably win eight, maybe nine games next year, but it’s really going to come down to: how good is Jackson Arnold?”

With such a big unknown at quarterback, when so many SEC teams have older and more established guys at the position, there’s some skepticism from the oddsmakers. but the boys from Sooner Scoop believe in the rising starter in Arnold to lead Oklahoma to 8+ wins in his first season as starter.