Greg McElroy analyzes Oklahoma's chances to make College Football Playoff in 2024

The 2024 college football season will be a big transition for Oklahoma, which is set to join the SEC alongside rival Texas. College football is a whole is also set to see a massive change as the College Football Playoff field will expand from four teams to 12.

That opens the door for teams with multiple losses to make it in, which had never happened in the four-team format. The Sooners haven’t made it since the 2019 season, but the changes provide hope they can snap that streak in 2024.

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy assessed their chances on the Always College Football podcast, beginning with a breakdown of what OU lost and gained this offseason.

“Brent Venables did a great job in his second year,” McElroy said. “Going from 6-7 to 10-3. You knock off Texas in the Red River Rivalry. That was massive. You now lose your quarterback in Dillon Gabriel, who was a two-year starter. Threw for nearly 7,000 yards and 73 total touchdowns in Norman. That was big to lose him, but you do have an adequate replacement in the young freshman Jackson Arnold. He’s a former five-star recruit. He has all the tools, but there will be some growing pains as evidence by the little playing time he got this year. They have to replace a bunch along the offensive line as well. They also have to replace Drake Stoops, who was the leading receiver from a year ago.”

Arnold ranked as the No. 4 quarterback in the 2023 cycle according to the On3 Industry Ranking, a weighted average that utilizes all four major recruiting media companies. He spent the regular season backing up Gabriel, but made his first start in the Alamo Bowl against Arizona.

It wasn’t quite the performance that Oklahoma fans were hoping for, as Arnold threw for 361 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions in a 38-24 loss. He also committed a fumble, making four of six turnovers from the Sooners a result of his play.

Still, it was only one game and there are high hopes that Arnold will live up to his lofty recruiting ranking with more time to develop. OU brought in a solid transfer portal class, including Purdue receiver Deion Burks (47 catches, 679 yards, 7 TDs), to build around Arnold and replace some of their biggest losses.

“They did add Deion Burks from Purdue at receiver, but it’s still gonna be very interesting to see exactly how things fill out there amongst the receiver corps,” McElroy said. “They’ve gotten some key pieces in the portal. They’ve added (Spencer) Brown, who was a two-year starter at Michigan State. They added (Dezjhon) Malone, who was an honorable mention Mountain West selection at San Diego State and might shore up the pass defense there on the back end.

“They did part ways with Ted Roof, the defensive coordinator and brought in Zac Alley, who was at Jacksonville State, so it’ll be a little bit different-looking defensive structure, perhaps. Of course they have to replace Jeff Lebby. They brought in Seth Littrell to do that, who I think will be excellent there in Norman, his alma mater.”

For Oklahoma to make the 12-team playoff in 2024, it would likely need to finish with a record of 10-2 or 9-3 at the very least. Given the increase in strength as schedule — with teams like Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss on OU’s slate — McElroy isn’t very high on the Sooners to pull either of those off.

He predicted them to finish around 8-4 with a ceiling of 9-3. The ESPN analyst cited several tough road contests as the reason for his projection, but he didn’t rule out a Playoff appearance entirely. There’s still plenty of talent on this roster, especially if Arnold lives up to the hype.

“Here’s where it gets very tricky for Oklahoma are the games away from Norman,” McElroy said. “Texas, you’re playing them in Dallas. Neutral site as always. At Ole Miss, very difficult. At Missouri, very difficult. At LSU, very difficult. Then Alabama comes to you on the second-to-last week of the regular season. I think an 8-4 is probably about right. Maybe 7-5 if they don’t pull off an upset in one of those aforementioned games. They’ll be an underdog against Texas more than likely. They’ll be an underdog against Ole Miss. They’ll be an underdog against Missouri. They’ll be an underdog against Bama. They’ll be an underdog on the road at LSU more than likely.

“So 8-4 is definitely possible. If they have a special year, 9-3. If they get to 9-3, I really like their chances. But I don’t think they can get there. I put the percentage chance they make the 12-team Playoff at 10%.”