Greg McElroy gives Brent Venables a 10% chance to win national championship at Oklahoma

Oklahoma is nearing 25 years since its last national championship. Bob Stoops was the head coach while Josh Heupel was the starting quarterback. There have been a few opportunities for the Sooners since then but BCS national championship games or College Football Playoff appearances have fallen short.

Brent Venables has been tasked with getting the program back to the promised land. Year One was not great, finishing 6-7 for Oklahoma’s first losing season since 1998. Everyone in Norman enjoyed last season much more, getting back to winning ways, and building some momentum inside the building.

Even so, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy gives Oklahoma just a 10% chance to win a national championship under Venables. A number he feels is pretty good but not likely what Sooner fans want to hear.

“People are probably going to say ‘That’s a really low number.’ I think the likelihood of winning a national championship right at Oklahoma under Brent Venables is 10%,” McElroy said.

“Which to me, feels like a pretty good number. Because to me, right now, if I were to rank the SEC one through 16 heading into ’24, I have Oklahoma somewhere in the middle. Which means they’re in the vicinity of an 8-4, 7-5 football team.”

McElroy is actually high on where Oklahoma’s roster is at the moment. Venables has put together a capable defense and if the defensive line works out, they should be in the range of solid to elite at all three levels.

Jackson Arnold is taking over the offensive for Dillon Gabriel, his first full season of starting. Long-term confidence is there for Arnold but growing pains are natural for any young quarterback. Even with some great weapons around him at wide receiver.

What damages Oklahoma in the 2024 season for McElroy is the schedule. The SEC did them no favors between tough opponents and intimidating road atmospheres. A few ‘Welcome to the show’ moments certainly fall on the schedule.

“How capable is Oklahoma, right now, in competing in the Southeastern Conference? Because I really like Oklahoma this year, I’ve said that. I think their talent is good on all three levels defensively. I think they have a good quarterback.

“It might take a little time before he becomes a star but he’s got the talent to do so. And I think they really great wide receivers… I’m very optimistic about what Oklahoma is going to be, I just think the schedule this year is outrageously difficult,” McElroy said.

In a broader picture, moving to the SEC hurts Oklahoma more than it helps according to McElroy. Dominating the Big 12 for years helped get the Sooners in the national championship picture. Now, multiple other schools are gunning for the same prize, making the competition quite stiff.

“I think there’s going to be a little bit of growing pains as they transition into the league,” McElroy said. “And as a result, I’m going to put that number a little lower than I probably would if they were to remain in the Big 12. Because in the Big 12, they have a much better chance of having easier access to the playoff. I just don’t know if it’s going to happen on an annual basis in the SEC.”