JD PicKell predicts Oklahoma will finish 6-6 in 2024 amid 'growing pains' in SEC

Many are interested to see how Oklahoma handles their transition this fall into the SEC. Now, with it being exactly one month until they kick off, On3’s JD PicKell has decided on how he has the Sooners finishing in 2024.

PicKell assessed many programs, including OU, during Tuesday’s episode of ‘The Hard Count’. When it came to Oklahoma, he understands why some are questioning them with all their new aspects going into this season. However, for every concern about them, he sees a potential answer if things go the right way in Norman.

“Vegas has them at an over-under win total of 7.5. Now, you see that and you’re like, ‘Wait a second? Oklahoma, that team that pretty much owned the Big 12 for the better part of the last however many years? That Oklahoma?’. Like, that brand, that logo and that over-under win total don’t really make a whole lot of sense when you see them together,” said PicKell. “I think what Vegas is telling us here with this win total is we don’t know what to do with you. We’re not sure – new quarterback, a lot of new pieces on the offensive line if not a whole new offensive line, new conference. Like, we don’t know what to do with you. We don’t know if we can trust you just yet.”

“I think, when we talk about Oklahoma and them being unproven? Sometimes, us as human beings, we take unproven and we just chalk it up to not talented or hopeless or it’s not going to work. I don’t think that’s Oklahoma. It’s fair to be skeptical. It’s extremely unfair to say there’s no way they have success,” PicKell continued. “With every question mark you have about them? In the same way we talk about Florida, I think you can also make a case for it working at a really high level for Oklahoma. New quarterback, had a bad bowl game? Still was a Five-Star+ kind of player. I promise you, like, your school probably wanted Jackson Arnold when he came out of high school. New offensive line? Well, got one of the best offensive line coaches in America in Bill Bedenbaugh. That’s a cause for optimism.”

Most of these matters come from Oklahoma’s offense although they improved a ton on that side from 2022 to 2023. That’s why PicKell thinks that, at least to start the season, the Sooners should be leaning on a defense that returns eight starters, including their top-six tacklers and 11 of their Top-13.

“I think the best way to put it when you talk about Oklahoma in 2024? They are a program that will have to lift with their legs,” explained PicKell. “The legs of this operation at Oklahoma is the defense. It will have to be a defensive-led operation from the jump.”

“Now, will it be that way in November? Remains to be seen. But, as the offensive line tries to gel those first few games, as Jackson Arnold starts to get more comfortable those first few games? I need my defense to carry the torch and to make the heavy lift early because you have all of hat returning production back, because Brent Venables is from the defensive side of the ball. I promise you that defense is his baby.”

As he dove into their schedule, PicKell highlighted September as the most important month of the Sooners’ season. It’ll be early enough on for them to secure some wins before a difficult back half. It’ll also provide a pair of matchups that he thinks they need to capitalize on if they want to prove themselves within the league.

“September is the big swing month. There’s two games I have circled if I’m a Sooner fan. It’s Tennessee for storyline reasons, obviously, but also it being your first game in the SEC. Then welcome to the SEC, baby – you turn around the next day, flip right around and you play at Auburn the next weekend,” noted PicKell. “The big reason why those games are important? One, it’s for establishing momentum and confidence – that’s obvious. But you’ve got to be who’s in your neighborhood, man. If you want to win at the highest level in college football, you’ve got to beat who’s in your neighborhood.”

With all that said, PicKell still isn’t entirely certain how he feels about Oklahoma. That’s what led him to an eventual prediction of a 6-6 record overall.

That might seem low and a few may think that’s a slight of the Sooners. However, that’s PicKell trying to take everything into account, including that adjustment in their debut in the Southeastern Conference.

“Oklahoma is one of the trickiest teams for me to get a pulse on. Because I think you could make an argument for them having a tremendous season, winning somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 games. You could make a case for them missing a bowl game. Like, I could see either path depending on how those variables we just talked about end up falling,” said PicKell. “For me, I’m going to fall somewhere in the middle there. I’m going to have Oklahoma at 6-6.”

“I’m going to put them at 6-6 as we stand here right now. But here’s the big thing I want us to all get aligned on. ‘JD, you’re 6-6! You hate the Sooners!’ – no, we’re not saying that. We’re not saying that,” PicKell said. “Don’t panic. If you go 6-6 this year, do not panic. It does not mean Brent Venables isn’t the guy, it does not mean Jackson Arnold is a bad quarterback. It does not mean that you can’t compete in the SEC. What it means is there’s some growing pains.”

Oklahoma historically has a case that they could completely outdo that prediction by PicKell. It’s just the position that he sees them in with their roster as they come into their first year as a program within the SEC.

“They could definitely overachieve my expectations,” said PicKell. “They could definitely hit the over there.”

“This is what you signed up for. This is the SEC. It’s the best conference in college football,” PicKell said. “It is what it is. Oklahoma, I think, is still in a good spot going forward.”