Stanford Steve sees Oklahoma’s defense as biggest help for Oklahoma to go over 7.5 wins

With the start of the college football season less than a month away, Andy Staples is doing his best to track down the best bets for over-under before the opening kickoff. To help him provide the 411 on the top over and under win totals for the 2024 season, On3’s resident college football expert enlisted the services of ESPN’s Stanford Steve.

The duo broke down the win total for one of the newest members of the SEC — the Oklahoma Sooners. Although the Sooners had a strong finish to their 2023 campaign, which debuted the young star quarterback Jackson Arnold, their over-under has them closer to fighting for a spot in the top 25 than competing for a berth in the College Football Playoff.

“Oklahoma came out at 6.5 on most of the books; very quickly, [the] bet is up to 7.5, but it’s settled there,” said Staples. “This is a tough schedule — a brutal schedule — but I look at it and go Oklahoma can go 8-4. Oklahoma fans would be so disappointed at 8-4, but that cashes your ticket.”

ESPN’s college football power index ranks Oklahoma with the eighth toughest schedule in 2024. They also give the Sooners just over a five percent chance of winning the SEC in their inaugural season and a less than three percent chance of winning this year’s national championship. And given Oklahoma’s 2024 schedule, it is more than understandable.

Sooners will have a mild start to the season, facing Temple and Houston in their first two games. After that, things ratchet up a bit as Oklahoma will host Tulane, who’s projected to be in the running for the group of five bid in the expanded College Football Playoff, followed by their SEC debut against the Tennessee Volunteers. In the eyes of Stanford Steve, that will be the first true test for the Sooners, but not the biggest in the first half of the season. That honor goes to another SEC program, as he explains.

“I look at their schedule in two halves, knowing the importance of starting fast,” opened Steve. “God bless Temple. I think you’re in for one Week 1; lay the points, whatever that is. But that Tennessee game, they are going to build that up. I would think they would beat Tennessee.

“But after that, I still think it’s underrated because not enough people have been there; it’s one of my favorite home stadiums in the country, Jordan-Hare. [Auburn] is sneaky because I think that ceiling for that team is higher than most of the people that I’ve been reading.

“So, what are you going to be out of that Tennessee game, knowing the talent Tennessee has on the defensive line where they could maybe hang around with their defense and slow you down a little bit. What are you going to be out of that game? You gotta go in Texas, in Dallas; that makes me wonder. But I do think what he (Brent Venables) has sustained and the stability that he has created there, I do think that’s a top-notch defense.”

The second half of the season will be a true litmus test for Oklahoma as they will battle Texas in the Red River Showdown and have to take trips to Oxford, MS, and Columbus, MO, to face the Ole Miss Rebels and Missouri Tigers, both winners of their 2023 New Years Six Bowl games. To close out the year, the Sooners will host the Alabama Crimson Tide along with a trip to Death Valley to face the LSU Tigers in the regular season finale.

Given how dominant and dangerous Oklahoma has been in college football, its fans have huge expectations for what its program can deliver. However, Stanford Steve believes they should temper their expectations just a bit now that they are out of the Big 12 and running with the big dogs of the SEC.

“The expectation in Oklahoma talked to their fans a lot; they get a little crazy with their expectations,” he said. “But I get it. They dominated the Big 12 for as long as it was around. And you should have expectations when you’re in that. But now I think, with the way it’s tempered a little bit, and knowing that these quarterbacks are better set up for success at younger age. I still would take a shot with the over here. I think they could rely on that defense going on the road and the places that we just talked about. And they’re gonna have a serious, serious edge on their shoulders.”

Oklahoma is well-positioned to have a solid showing in 2024. They have the talent on a roster that can go toe to toe with any other program in the country. However, Staples and Stanford Steve believe that their first year in the SEC will be a gut check that may not live up to the expectations of Sooner fans.