Why On3 is higher than the industry on Oklahoma signee Kuol Atak

Oklahoma signee Kuol Atak is an interesting prospect. Here at On3, we are higher than the industry on the 6-foot-9 forward from Haltom City (TX) Haltom High ranking him as the No. 47 overall player in the updated 2024 On3 150. 

On3 leaves nothing to question when we talk about the objective of our rankings. The goal is to assess a prospect’s long-term potential, ultimately manifested by the NBA Draft. Our ranking is not to assess who had the best high school career or who will be the best college player. This is why we will shoot to end each cycle with 14 five-star prospects, following the lead of the NBA Draft Lottery. This can be different from others, but our vision with rankings is draft night. 

On3 has Atok ranked No. 47. He is ranked No. 120 by 247, No. 127 by Rivals, and he is unranked by ESPN. Atok is the No. 106 in the 2024 On3 Industry Ranking. Criteria can be different across the industry when it comes to players and the order they are ranked. So let’s break down why On3 is higher on Kuol Atak than the industry.

It starts with the shooting

Over the last decade, at the highest levels of basketball, shooting has become an important piece of the game. The spacing the game is played with, teams are playing with four, and sometimes five players on the court at a time who can each make a shot. 

Kuol Atok has consistently been a big-time shooter since he first hit the scene in his sophomore year. This summer, playing with the 3D Empire program on the Pro16/NXT Circuit, Atak shot 40.2 percent from three on 3.7 makes per game. 

Atak has touch that extends beyond the arc. Traditionally, he has been a spot shooter, getting his feet under him and shooting off the catch. Over the last eight or so months he has diversified his shot-making. 

At a lengthy 6-foot-9, Atak has a high and consistent release that helps him shoot over smaller defenders. While his shoulder-to-fingertip action on his jump shot is not traditional, it is comfortable and repeatable for him. Over the past eight months, he has improved in getting his upper body squared to the basket from various angles off movement. As well as stepping into some shots off the bounce. 

Over three seasons, and 90 high school games – with a handful remaining – Atak is a career 37.1 percent three point shooter on 6.7 attempts per game. 

Looking at his continued trajectory as a scorer, Atak has developed his handle in recent months, which enhances his ability to make shots. While he is not blowing by players off the bounce, he is pushing the break and getting his team into offense. He is also comfortable putting the ball on the floor for one and two dribble pullups in the half-court. 

Atak’s floor for shooting is high. As he continues to add strength, especially to his base and core, he will continue becoming are more diversified shooter. No longer is he just a spot shooter, and with the continued development of his footwork and balance with his superpower, he could become an even more dangerous scorer. 

Atak has an intriguing mix of size, length, and fluidity

Kuol Atak is listed at 6-foot-9 and 185 pounds. He is very thin, but he is not frail. I cannot find an official measurement for his wingspan, but he certainly has a plus measurement from fingertip to fingertip. 

What adds to the allure of his height and length is athletic fluidity. He moves and bends and runs effortlessly, and at full speed. This helps him on the defensive end of the floor where he shows upside. Still very thin for his position and while he is quick-twitch he is not an overly explosive athlete. He gets his fair share of deflections and blocks, and is not afraid to mix it up on the defensive end, where he gives effort. 

With his height, length, and fluidity as he continues to add strength and learn the nuances (footwork, angles, positioning, etc.) of playing defense, there is an upside. He is averaging 2.0 blocks and 1.1 steals through 29 games this high school season.

However, make no mistake, At 6-foot-9 with a plus wingspan, the shooting and scoring will be what Atak hangs his hat on. As he continues to get stronger and continue learning his spots and efficiently getting to them, with some patience, he has a chance to take off.

Atak’s self-creation is developing

As I spoke about above, Kuol Atak has built his reputation as a lethal shooter. Until this summer, however, most of his shots would come with his feet set and off the catch. He was a floor spacing forward and a supreme shooter from the corners. 

This season, his confidence on the ball is rising. He is bringing the ball into the half-court often and getting his team into sets. You also see him occasionally straight line drive toward the rim. 

Atak is still comfortable from beyond the arc as 47 percent of his 495 attempted shots this season have been from three. As a sophomore 51 percent of his shots were from three. While remaining true to his strengths, his offensive game is diversifying. Atak is also moving the ball better as he has more than double his assist total from last season, going from 1.0 per game to 2.1. The ball does not stick in this scorer’s hands.

With the developed handle also comes a more diverse scoring packing. He is stepping into threes now, shooting off one and two dribbles, and figuring out his comfort spots on the floor. While his footwork is still coming around, and a lot of that may come as he continues to get stronger, the developing confidence in putting the ball on the floor – and not overdoing it – brings more versatility to his game. 

Projecting Kuol Atak moving forward

This one is a little bit tricky because so much of Kual Atak’s long-term success hinges on his ability to add quality weight. At 6-foot-9 and 185 pounds, he is still rail thin. As we mentioned earlier he is not frail by any means, but adding strength will only enhance every aspect of his game and help to reach his ceiling. 

As things stand, there are varying archetypal outcomes for Atak. The baseline of his projection is interesting as a lengthy 6-foot-9 shooter with some defensive instincts and the ability to move the ball. Those types of players are valuable at the highest levels of basketball. 

A look at the NBA, the average height of the league is 6-foot-7, and the average weight is 215 pounds. Of the 82 players that are currently shooting 38 percent or better from three this season, 31 of them are 6-foot-7, or more. With most teams having played around 50 games, the league average three-point percentage of the 535 players who have logged NBA minutes is 36.6 percent. Shooting and positional size matters.

However, there is no getting by the fact he will need to add weight, even at his skill baseline, he is 25 pounds away from being 10 pounds away. Pull-up jumpers, shooting off movement, and corner threes are all widely used shots at the NBA level. As he continues to add weight, the skill development will be interesting to watch.