Breaking down the Oklahoma State 2023 season using the over/under

Entering the 2023 season on the heels of a 7-6 finish, Oklahoma State’s over/under total is set at 6.5 wins according to Vegas. Although coach Mike Gundy has not fallen under seven victories since his inaugural season in 2005, things don’t exactly look promising after 18 players transferred out of Stillwater.

That includes playmakers such as quarterback Spencer Sanders and leading rusher Dominic Richardson. On3′s Andy Staples and J.D. PicKell broke down their thoughts on how things will shape up for OSU with a new-look roster that features 14 transfer additions.

“The transfer portal giveth and the transfer portal taketh away, and it feels like the transfer portal have taketh more away from the Oklahoma State Cowboys,” Staples said. “This feels like Mike Gundy’s time to say, ‘I can adjust to this era of college football or I can’t.’ In most years I would be like, ‘this is no question an over’ because Mike Gundy always does more with less. Always finds a way. But now I kind of wonder with the losses they had.”

Oklahoma State at least returns leading receiver Brennan Presley and brought in former Texas Tech and Michigan quarterback Alan Bowman. Staples also pointed to the fact that the Cowboys’ schedule features all four of the Big 12’s new teams — BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. He argued that those programs could face some growing pains in their new conference, which could work in the Cowboys’ favor.

PicKell agreed, leaning on Gundy’s track record as a reason why he believes Oklahoma State will hit the over in 2023.

“I think there is a level of acclimation that a lot of these schools are gonna undergo maybe a little bit more than we’re thinking they might right now,” he said. “Mike Gundy has historically done more with less every single year. They’re one of those teams. They’ve kind of adapted from year to year, but they kind of feel like they’re always going to be right in the thick of it in the Big 12.

“This is one of those that you sit here and pick it right now in August and someone is like, ‘justify that.’ I’m like, ‘I don’t know, but have you seen Mike Gundy?’ I think he’s since kind of tapered down the mullet a little bit, but I’m going with Oklahoma State to find a way to get to seven and get the over here.”

Staples, however, argued that the losses through the transfer portal will be too great to overcome, predicting OSU to finish under the 6.5 mark for just the second time in the Gundy era. Even if the Cowboys can beat the Big 12 newcomers, they have nonconference games against Arizona State and a sneaky South Alabama team.

“It’s hard for me to see it because they’re gonna go to Arizona State and Kenny Dillingham’s gonna want to make a point there in his first big nonconference game,” Staples said. “South Alabama comes to Stillwater. Folks, Kane Wommack’s team is good. That is not a ‘gimme’ game right there.

“Then you’ve gotta go to Ames where, Lord knows what will be left of Iowa State’s team by the time the gambling investigation is done. But I do suspect they might be not as unlucky as last season. I think it’s probably under for Oklahoma State, but this will be a fascinating test for Mike Gundy and what he can do.”

Oklahoma State kicks off the 2023 season on Sept. 2 with a home game against Central Arkanas.