Predicting ceiling, floor for Oklahoma State in 2024 season

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are confident that they can be one of the top teams in the Big 12 moving forward. That includes being a competitor in 2024 to win the conference.

With an eye toward the upcoming season, Andy Staples and Ari Temkin of Big 12 Radio broke down Oklahoma State on Andy Staples On3. There, they predicted what they think the win ceiling and the win floor for the Cowboys are going to be in the upcoming season.

Ultimately, the two agreed that Oklahoma State is going to have a very high floor this season. However, they didn’t quite come to an agreement on just how high to put this team’s ceiling.

CEILING: Compete for Big 12 Championship, 9-3

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are one of several teams competing toward the top of the Big 12 in 2024. That’s a place they’ve ended up almost expecting to be over the course of head coach Mike Gundy‘s career.

“We’ll talk about another one that can win it, and that’s Oklahoma State,” Andy Staples said. “We talk about what Bill Snyder did at Kansas State, I think what Mike Gundy has done in his career at Oklahoma State is almost as miraculous. I don’t know that he gets the credit for that. It’s hard. I don’t know if people remember when Mike Gundy took over this program in 2005, a bowl game was not a guaranteed prospect for Oklahoma State, like making a bowl special to them. Now, they make a bowl game every year. They are competing for the Big 12 title in some years. This is one of those years that they should compete for the Big 12 title. They bring back a ton, including Ollie Gordon, maybe the best back in the country.”

Ari Temkin then pointed out that Oklahoma State is also bringing back a very experienced quarterback in Alan Bowman, who has been playing since Kliff Kingsbury was at Texas Tech, who was his first coach.”

“But any time you’re talking about the leading rusher in college football is back. They still have one of the best pass rushers in college football in Collin Oliver. They’ve been doing a lot of three-man fronts, like most of the teams in the Big 12. They’re gonna run a lot more four-man fronts to take advantage of a guy like Collin Oliver who is such a great edge piece,” Temkin said.

“I think like the ceiling is nine wins, floor is eight wins.”

For his part, Staples disagrees and thinks that the ceiling for Oklahoma State is to win the Big 12. That would, in turn, be a College Football Playoff berth. With a manageable non-conference schedule, it could end up looking like a good season.

“See, I think the ceiling is win the Big 12. I think there’s so much variability in the conference that they can absolutely. Look at the non-conference because obviously that plays into at-larges. Like, Arkansas, that’s a really winnable game. Oklahoma State is gonna be favored against Arkansas,” Staples said.

“I think Oklahoma State can win this league. Things are gonna have to break right. I am not as confident about them as I am about, say, Kansas State or Utah, but if things break right they can be in the title game. Then, you’re in a one-game scenario to make the Playoff.”

FLOOR: 7-5, 8-4

Ari Temkin came into 2023 very high on Oklahoma State, and while he isn’t quite as high on the Cowboys this season, he still thinks there’s a high floor for the team.

“I like Oklahoma State this year, although I’m not as high on them as I was last year. I picked Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 Championship last year, which was a huge surprise… They played for it. What I liked was the consistency of Mike Gundy. I did not think they were gonna do this quarterback carousel to start the year. It should have been Bowman the whole way. They didn’t. They rotated guys the first three games of the season and then finally gave way to Bowman,” Temkin said.

“So, for me, I’m not gonna say ceiling is to win the Big 12 because I don’t know that I’ve seen enough from Alan Bowman to think that he can do that and they can do that, but their floor is high. I think their floor is seven, eight wins.”

Staples agreed with Temkin relatively quickly. Oklahoma State should win at least eight or nine games this season.

“And, I’m with you, we’re talking about an eight, nine-win team on the floor. This is a good team. Again, Mike Gundy, we’ve put him on the list with Bill Snyder. I think the jobs that they’ve done are similar.”

Ari Temkin agreed. As long as Mike Gundy is coaching Oklahoma State, the Cowboys should be a very capable team.

“To that end, you’ve got to give them the benefit of the doubt,” Temkin said.