Analyzing possibility for Oregon, Washington to join Big 12, potential hold up

With Colorado packing their bags and heading to the Big 12 in 2024, conference realignment is one of the hottest topics in college football right now. On Sunday evening, On3’s Andy Staples had John Canzano on his podcast to discuss his thoughts on what he thinks Washington’s and Oregon’s next moves should be when it comes to potential conference realignment. Could they potentially join the Big 12? And why might they want to remain in the Pac-12 Conference?

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“I think they needed to listen early,” Canzano began. “And I think they did some of that. But I think Oregon in particular, looked at the Big Ten first. And also, maybe the SEC. And they didn’t get a lot of warmth in return for those. Because I think Oregon and their brand, they see themselves as kind of above the Big 12 Conference and a tent pole in the Pac-12. They also, you know, value the access to the playoff. So as long as the Pac-12 has access to that playoff, I do think there’s a motivation for Oregon to stay put.”

The Ducks are lucky enough to have one of the wealthiest men on planet Earth in their arsenal, Nike CEO Phil Knight. They certainly won’t be hurting for revenue or money as much as many other schools across the college football landscape.

“They have the great equalizer in Phil Knight,” Canzano continued. “They aren’t hurting for revenue. It doesn’t matter as much in Eugene that you know, they’re $30 or $35 million dollars behind the Big Ten Conference in annual revenue because Phil Knight can write a check. So, I think Oregon was thinking about that, plus you have a complex relationship with Oregon State. And I really do wonder how much pushback you’d get from the state Capitol if you tried to separate those two schools. I think we’ve seen some of that at Washington and Washington State as well.”

“And then to your Utah point, I just think that those three schools (Oregon, Utah, and Washington) all value access to the playoff. And I think Utah knows now because it’s a two-time champion. It can get there from the Pac-12,” Canzano said. “So, as long as this conference can stay together, get a reasonable amount of money in this media rights deal. I think all three were thinking all along, ‘Hey, we’re better suited in a 10-team conference or a 12-team conference than going anywhere else.'”

Then, Canzano dove into explaining exactly why it’s hard to trust anyone at this point.

“But I think they all have to be listening at this point, because as Colorado proved, you can’t really trust the people in the room right now. They’re all pirates, so to speak,” the columnist explained. Colorado was telling people a week before they left, ‘Hey, we’re all in,’ behind closed doors in the meeting. I’ve talked to other members there and they all kind of went, ‘Yeah, yeah, you’re gonna do what’s best for you.’ But they were getting messaging from Colorado that said, ‘Hey, we’re all in.’ And you know, they should not have been surprised by this, because I think Philip DiStefano had gone public. We all heard it. He wanted numbers, but at this point, everybody’s gotta do what’s best for themselves. But you know, again, the messaging internally was not matching what was happening externally.”

The only thing that is predictable at this point in the college football landscape is unpredictability. Sit back and enjoy the ride.