ESPN’s FPI rankings predict every Oregon football game this season
Oregon football is projected to finish 9.5-3.1 this season, according to ESPN’s FPI rankings. The Ducks rank No. 12 in the country and project to finish with the eighth-best record in college football. Oregon is the PAC-12 favorite with a 40.1% chance of winning the conference and has a 0.9% chance of winning out.
The Ducks are one of the most talented teams in the country with former five-star prospects Kayvon Thibodeaux and Justin Flowe on defense. Oregon prepares to face the No. 35 strength of schedule this season and is favored in 11 of 12 games. With at least a 90% chance in five games, Oregon’s FPI ranking suggests they are a lock to finish with a good record.
Here is a look at Oregon’s chances in every game this season:
Fresno State
Oregon has a 93.2% chance to beat Fresno State. The Ducks open against the No. 83 ranked team in the FPI rankings.
at Ohio State
The Ducks have just a 15.4% chance to knock off Ohio State. Oregon faces its toughest challenge against No. 4 Ohio State on the road.
Stony Brook
Oregon has a 99.2% chance of beating Stony Brook. The Ducks face an FCS opponent to end non-conference play.
Arizona
The Ducks have a 95% chance to win over Arizona. Oregon starts the PAC-12 schedule with the worst team in the conference.
at Stanford
Oregon has a 69.4% chance to beat Stanford on the road. The Ducks fourth toughest game of the year still provides a high chance of winning.
Cal
The Ducks have a 90.2% chance of beating Cal at home. The Golden Bears rank No. 74 in the country with a negative FPI rating.
at UCLA
Oregon has a 70.2% chance to win against UCLA. The Bruins are ranked No. 54 in the FPI rankings but have been underwhelming in recent years.
Colorado
The Ducks have an 87.4% chance against Colorado. Oregon continues its run as the favorite at home against the No. 62 team.
at Washington
Oregon has a 56.9% chance of beating Washington. The Ducks’ second-toughest game is also on the road against a top 25 team, but this time they are favorites.
Washington State
The Ducks have an 88.5% chance of beating Washington State. Oregon returns to being the heavy favorite against No. 73 Washington State.
at Utah
Oregon has a 58.3% chance against Utah. The third toughest game comes on the road against the No. 30 team in the FPI rankings.
Oregon State
The Ducks have a 91.3% chance against Oregon State to close the season. Oregon’s in-state rivals are the third-worst opponent on the schedule with a negative FPI rating.
Conclusion:
Oregon faces a friendly PAC-12 schedule that does not include Arizona State or USC in the regular season. With a relatively weak schedule the rest of the way, week two’s matchup on the road against Ohio State could determine Oregon’s College Football Playoff chances. Road meetings with Washington and Utah will help shape the PAC-12 standings as the season rolls on.