Mario Cristobal leaving Oregon shifts Pac-12 recruiting landscape

The perfect storm of recruiting misery has formed for the Oregon Ducks with the news that Mario Cristobal is set to become the new coach at Miami.

The news that Cristobal is leaving Eugene stings for so many reasons for Duck fans.

In four seasons as coach at Oregon, Cristobal was 35-13, including a 2-2 record in bowl games. Cristobal led the Ducks to 2019 and ’20 Pac-12 titles, with another conference championship game appearance this season.

But the move absolutely kills the Ducks on the recruiting trail and likely signals a seismic shift in the Pac-12 recruiting pecking order.

Timing couldn’t be worse for Oregon

Maybe the biggest thing that hurts the Ducks’ recruiting efforts is the timing. With the start of the early signing period just nine days away, unless Oregon moves at warp speed, it’s going to be hard to salvage a class that sits at No. 10 in the On3 Consensus Team Recruiting Ranking.

“This is the absolute worst time for this to happen,” a rival Pac-12 recruiter said. “I know we’re going to go all-in on a few of their guys, but we won’t be the only ones. There’s just no way Oregon will be able to answer the questions that recruits will have with so little time to signing day.

“This will destroy their class.”

We’re already seeing signs of that. On3’s Gerry Hamilton reported early Monday that Oregon is set to suffer two key decommitments. Plus, four-star quarterback Tanner Bailey has announced he’s backed off his Oregon commitment.

How will Oregon replace Cristobal’s recruiting energy?

Under Cristobal, Oregon has a top-10 class in 2022, signed the sixth-best class in 2021 and was 11th nationally in 2020. He’s recruited well in the Pac-12 footprint, but he’s also ventured onto the national scene with great success.

Simply put, he’s one of the best recruiters in the game. And he’s irreplaceable.

“Mario Cristobal leaving will be a huge problem for Oregon for multiple reasons,” said Scoop Duck’s Justin Hopkins. “The biggest two are how involved Cristobal is in recruiting. I’ve always maintained he’s Oregon’s best recruiter, even as the head coach.”

Charles Power, On3’s Director of Scouting and Rankings agrees with Hopkins.

“Cristobal runs a top-down recruiting operation,” Power said. “Everyone in his program is recruiting with maximum effort and he’s the tip of the spear.

“I don’t know who or how you replace that in Oregon, especially on such short notice.”

Departure opens door for USC to dominate

Another thing that hurts Oregon is that an elite recruiter now is on the scene in Los Angeles.

For years, Cristobal was a major player in the Southland, luring away elite players from USC’s backyard. But now that Lincoln Riley – an elite recruiter himself – has arrived, the tide could turn back in the Trojans’ favor.

“Lincoln Riley just got to LA, and this opens the door for him to have a chance with several of Oregon’s top commits that have already told him they are interested,” Hopkins said.

Another Pac-12 coach said he believes this gives USC the juice to dominate the recruiting landscape in Los Angeles. “Lincoln’s going to have L.A. on lock,” the coach said.

Where does Oregon go from here?

Oregon athletic director Rob Mullens has a tough task. He immediately must find an interim head coach and rally the troops before he can even think about who the next coach will be, Hopkins said.

But Mullens has to quickly shift his focus to finding a replacement; remember that the signing period starts Dec. 15. He’ll want to hire a coach who can continue to sell the Oregon brand on the national stage but also ensure the Ducks will be a factor for top talent in their recruiting footprint.

“Oregon has always had a national appeal, so I think it’s important to embrace that,” Hopkins said. “But having Pac-12 ties will be a critical component because you can’t simply recruit east of Texas with consistent success.”

Power said the hire is a “pivotal one” for Oregon.

“Lincoln Riley is coming into the conference and will look to lock down SoCal recruiting,” Power said. “The Ducks have stacked several strong classes under Cristobal and should have a talented roster. But this timing certainly is far from ideal. That’s why you get this sense that this is a moment that’ll forever shift Pac-12 recruiting.”