Patience, coaching changes have Oregon ahead in the race for 5-star WR Gatlin Bair

The final weekend of the 2024 recruiting cycle is on the horizon, but there’s still plenty of headlines to follow with some elite prospects gearing up for the next level.

One of the biggest storylines is coming out of Burley, Idaho, as wide receiver Gatlin Bair is the lone uncommitted five-star in the cycle, and for the past couple of months, he has been wrestling with making his college decision — choosing between Michigan and Oregon.

The former Boise State commit came back on the board at the beginning of December. Early on, it was the Wolverines trending heavily for his pledge. Plenty has happened across the past few weeks, however.

“We’re approaching the ‘original’ signing day, which is no longer the headliner, but prior to Early Signing Day, I thought if Bair did not delay his commitment into this period, I was about to put in a prediction for Michigan,” Oregon insider Justin Hopkins said on The Inside Scoop.

The waiting game set to pay off for the Ducks

There was speculation surrounding when Bair would sign, with some believing that he would put pen to paper in December. If that were to have happened, Michigan was the likely outcome. He instead opted to think on his decision and push things out to February.

Last week, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh left Ann Arbor to return to the NFL as the HC of the Los Angeles Chargers. The potential coaching change for the Wolverines was something Bair knew was a possibility, as he even said at the beginning of January that it would factor into his final decision.

“The decision has not been made, i’m still working on it,” Bair said at the All-American Bowl in San Antonio. “See what happens in the national championship. Harbaugh — there’s rumors all over the place so you never know about that, but, that’s all a little bit that factors in.”

Dan Lanning was tied to new head coaching opportunities himself, but the Ducks skipper is staying put in Eugene. With Bair’s decision now expected in the coming days, the waiting game looks like it’ll play out in Oregon’s favor.

“Oregon was able to do that — that was the key, getting him to hang on…as you can see the result of that is Harbaugh going to the NFL, that opened the door for Oregon,” Hopkins said. “I think that was the last shoe to drop in his recruitment. So yeah, a month ago this was all Michigan’s to lose, but with the changes and everything that’s happened in that month, this one feels very strongly in favor of Oregon, right now.”

Oregon now trending in the On3 RPM

Hopkins and Michigan recruiting insider EJ Holland have each logged picks in the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine (RPM) in favor of Bair committing to Oregon. The Ducks now have an 88.8% edge for the No. 30 overall prospect and No. 7 wideout in the 2024 cycle — per the On3 Industry Ranking.

“I don’t think he’s going anywhere this weekend, I think he’ll just lay low with his family and probably think this thing out … I don’t know that he’ll commit on the signing day, per se, but we’ll probably hear something early next week, if not,” Hopkins said.

Bair has an On3 NIL Valuation of $191K. The On3 NIL Valuation is the industry’s leading index that sets high school and college athletes’ projected annual value (PAV). The NIL valuation does not act as a tracker of the value of NIL deals an athlete has completed to date. It rather signifies an athlete’s value at a certain moment in time.