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ESPN BET reveals insane win probability, odds Oregon overcame to beat Wisconsin

ns_headshot_2024-clearby:Nick Schultz•02/22/25•

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Oregon G Jackson Shelstad
© Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

With 7:31 to go in Saturday’s game against Wisconsin, Oregon center Nate Bittle missed a jump shot. At that point, the Ducks trailed by 15 points – the largest deficit of the second half.

According to ESPN’s win probability, Oregon had a just a 1.1% chance of winning the game in that moment and were +3000 on the live moneyline at ESPN BET. That showed the odds the Ducks overcame as they came all the way back to force overtime and, eventually, defeat the No. 11-ranked team in the nation.

Oregon ended the second half on a 19-4 run, capped by a three-pointer from Jackson Shelstad as time ticked off the clock. The Ducks then outscored Wisconsin 11-7 in overtime to seal the 77-73 victory and get their 20th win of the season.

Oregon’s only lead came early in regulation at the Kohl Center on Saturday as Wisconsin took full control. The Badgers’ led by as many as 17 in the first half, but the Ducks never backed down. The lead was 38-26 at halftime and 62-47 with 7:57 to play.

That’s when Oregon took over, rattling off a 19-4 run. That sent the game to overtime, and the Ducks jumped out in front with 3:18 remaining in the extra period.

Oregon remained in the driver’s seat in overtime, outscoring Wisconsin 11-7 in the final five minutes to seal the 77-73 victory over the Badgers. It takes the Ducks to 20-8 overall and 9-8 in Big Ten play as they head back to the West Coast to begin the final three-game sprint toward the Big Ten Tournament.

Oregon entered Saturday’s game fresh off a victory in the final seconds against Iowa. That game saw the Hawkeyes make a late surge, but they couldn’t convert down the stretch, and the Ducks held on for the thrilling 80-78 win in Iowa City.

Oregon’s offense hit a new gear when Bittle took control late in the second half. He had 12 points, four rebounds and two blocks in the second half as he played a key role in engineering the comeback. He remained the focal point in overtime, leading Oregon with six points to engineer the victory.

But Shelstad was the one who hit the biggest shot of the game. Although it wasn’t his best day from the field, the three-pointer was the icing on the cake of a huge comeback against the No. 11-ranked team in the country. He had 13 points in regulation while shooting 5-for-12 from the field, including 3-for-5 from three-point territory. The game-tying shot was his lone three-point attempt in the second half.