Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Oregon in 2024

During the latest episode of Andy Staples On3 on YouTube, Andy Staples and On3 National Scout Cody Bellaire took some time to name the ceiling and floor for each Big Ten team in 2024.

One of the teams they decided to focus on early on is the Oregon Ducks. As they move into the Big Ten for their first go-round, both Staples and Bellaire are confident Dan Lanning’s team can contend for a conference title.

“The Oregon Ducks,” Staples prefaced. “Now, the Oregon Ducks, viewed as co-favorites. If you go to FanDuel, look at the win totals. Oregon’s at 10.5, Ohio State’s at 10.5. Those the two highest in the league. They play each other, oh by the way. This roster is stacked. Dillon Gabriel comes into play quarterback. He replaces Bo Nix. If you’re going to pick a very productive college quarterback to replace another very productive college quarterback, that’s the one you’d pick.

“So here’s the question, because in Dan Lanning’s first two years, he had the most talented roster in the league. They did not win the league either those two years. This year, he does not have the most talented roster in the league. It’s close, but it’s not the most talented. But can he compete for the conference title, right off the bat, in the Big Ten?”

Evidently, Staples and Bellaire believe Oregon can contend for a Big Ten title and then some, putting their ceiling as ending the season as the top team in college football.

Ceiling: National Championship

“I think this is a team that has a real shot, not only to make the Playoff, but I really do think they can win the whole thing,” Bellaire started, revealing Oregon as a College Football Playoff contender. “It’s very possible in my opinion. … I think this team is almost a shoo in for the Playoff.”

Staples was in agreement, believing that if Oregon can put it all together, they’re going to be a very tough team to beat in the end.

“I have national title as the ceiling. … I think this team can win national title,” Staples added. “They have the roster to do it. It’s just a matter of putting it all together.”

Floor: 10-2 (Cody); 9-3 (Andy)

As for the floor, the duo slightly disagreed, as Bellaire stated his belief that Oregon won’t lose more than two games, “Yes, you get Ohio State at home. You get Michigan on the road. But to me, this is a team whose floor is two losses,” he stated.

On the other hand, Staples put Oregon’s floor at 9-3, but he relented that it might be a little low for Oregon in 2024.

“I have 9-3 as the floor. … 9-3 might actually a little too low,” Staples added. “But again, I have not I need to see them win every single game they’re supposed to win. I just, you know, I need to see that, for the first time under Dan Lanning. And really, they didn’t do that either under Mario Cristobal. So as a program, they’ve got to get to that. … It’s doable in Oregon. … You know, they are going to be extremely competitive. With Dan Lanning, the other thing to remember is, this is his third year as a head coach. You learn as you go. We said this about Kirby Smart.

“Kirby Smart in 2021 was not Kirby Smart from 2018. Kirby Smart from 2018 was not Kirby Smart from 2016. Like, that’s where Dan Lanning is at, in his evolution as a head coach.”

Alas, we’ll see if Dan Lanning can takeover the Big Ten during Oregon’s first season in the conference. Doubt the Ducks at your own risk, as they’re going to be a top contender next season, it seems.