ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for Penn State in 2023

Penn State is looking to break through their glass ceiling in 2023, and take no prisoners on their way to the upper echelon of the college football world.

It’s been a long road for James Franklin since taking over the Nittany Lions. However, his one true goal when becoming the leader of Penn State was to win a national title, and many believes this is their best chance to do so in a long time.

Ahead of what should be an exhilarating season, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has predicted which games Penn State will win, and the ones in which the Nittany Lions will falter. Now the algorithm isn’t always right, it can’t account for everything, but it does provide a fascinating baseline.

As Drew Allar takes over quarterbacking the Nittany Lions, here’s what ESPN is thinking for James Franklin’s squad in 2023.

Sept. 2: Penn State vs. West Virginia — 88.5% chance to win

Starting the 2023 campaign for Penn State will be a date with the Big 12’s West Virginia Mountaineers. The program enters the season with plenty of questions of their own, including what will become of coach Neal Brown if West Virginia can’t put some wins together.

Evidently, ESPN believes the Nittany Lions will have the upper-hand at night in Happy Valley. The FPI is giving Penn State an 88.5% chance to win, which would be a beautiful start for the Allar era.

Sept. 9: Penn State vs. Delaware — 99% chance to win

After West Virginia, Penn State gets a little reprieve with Delaware. The Blue Hens aren’t to be taken lightly, but it would be shocking to see the Nittany Lions’ pivotal season derailed in such grand fashion.

ESPN doesn’t believe it’ll be a close one, giving Penn State a 99% chance of victory. 2-0 seems like it’s likely for the Nittany Lions, though nothing is guaranteed.

Sept. 16: Penn State at Illinois — 72.1% chance to win

This won’t be a walk in the park for Franklin’s bunch. Illinois is no longer a slouch in the Big Ten, and it’s going to be difficult to defeat the Fighting Illini on the road.

Still, ESPN believes Penn State’s offense should give them the edge in this one, giving the Nittany Lions a 72.1% chance of victory. Some will predict this as a potential upset, but the FPI isn’t going that far at the moment.

Sept. 23: Penn State vs. Iowa — 80.8% chance to win

Another team that could give the Nittany Lions fits are the Iowa Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz’s team should be much improved on offense, with Cade McNamara leading the way, but will it be enough for a victory over Penn State?

ESPN doesn’t think the Hawkeyes waltz into Happy Valley and leave victorious. Still, it’s never easy against Iowa, and that’ll likely be the case once again in 2023.

Sept. 30: Penn State at Northwestern — 84.4% chance to win

Last season, Northwestern came into Beaver Stadium and held Penn State at bay. It was a close one, as the Nittany Lions only won by a score of 17-7 in 2022.

However, things are looking much different for the Wildcats, as Pat Fitzgerald is no longer leading their program. That could lead to some rough patches throughout the season, and Penn State will hope one of those is when the Nittany Lions come to town.

Oct. 14: Penn State vs UMass — 98.8% chance to win

Before their schedule really picks up, Penn State has a bye week, and then a reprieve in UMass on Oct. 14. It’ll be the perfect time for Allar and the offense, along with the Nittany Lions defense, to sure-up for a run.

While Penn State will certainly be working on some new things against UMass, it likely won’t be enough to stumble into a shocking upset. ESPN has this as a near guarantee, and it’s easy to see why.

Oct. 21: Penn State at Ohio State — 14.2% chance to win

Arguably the biggest game for Penn State in the James Franklin era. Ohio State is seemingly vulnerable, and the Big Ten is ripe for the taking, and the vibes will be immaculate when the Nittany Lions travel to Columbus on Oct. 21.

If Penn State can find a victory against Ryan Day and company, they’ll vault into College Football Playoff talks. Everything is on the line come Oct. 21, and it won’t be easy. ESPN doesn’t see it happening, but if Penn State wants to break on through to the other side, a victory must be had.

Oct. 28: Penn State vs Indiana — 92.8% chance to win

After what’s to be a hard-fought game against Ohio State, Penn State will come home for a date with Indiana. They railroaded the Hoosiers in 2022, defeating them by a score of 45-14 on their way to victory.

Regardless, feelings from the weekend prior will be evident throughout. Whether Penn State wins or loses against Ohio State, Indiana is a must-have, and it’ll be fascinating to see if the Nittany Lions can take it.

Nov. 4: Penn State at Maryland — 73.3% chance to win

Maryland can’t be happy with the way their showdown with Penn State went last season. The Terrapins entered Beaver Stadium with high hopes, and left with a 30-0 butt-kicking.

There’s talent throughout for Maryland, but they haven’t been able to put it all together. Perhaps they’ll catch Penn State looking ahead to Michigan, but ESPN has the Nittany Lions winning handily.

Nov. 11: Penn State vs Michigan — 47.2% chance to win

The advantage Penn State possesses over Michigan that they won’t have against Ohio State is that the game is at Beaver Stadium. With that in mind, ESPN is giving them a better shot at a win, making it almost even, as Penn State has a 47.2% chance at victory.

Last season, the Wolverines took care of business by a score of 41-17 against the Nittany Lions, and that’s been on Franklin’s mind ever since. If Penn State can pull off the defeat of Ohio State, this could be for all the marbles, and one of the biggest games of 2023.

Nov. 18: Penn State vs Rutgers — 92.9% chance to win

Rutgers has been trying to make a rivalry with Penn State stick, but it hasn’t, largely due to the Nittany Lions’ dominance over the Scarlet Knights. While Greg Schiano’s bunch has made it interesting on a number of occasions, an long elusive victory has avoided them.

ESPN doesn’t believe Penn State will slip up against New Jersey’s premier squad in 2023, giving them a 92.9% chance of victory in Happy Valley. It looks like the thought is the Nittany Lions will continue their dominance.

Nov. 24: Penn State at Michigan State — 65.9% chance to win

Finally, Penn State will finish their regular season with a highly-anticipated matchup with Michigan State at Ford Field, home of the Detroit Lions. Last season in Happy Valley, Penn State defeated the Spartans by a score of 35-16, en route to their Rose Bowl victory afterwards.

This season, Penn State will be hoping to look towards the Big Ten title game following their game with the Spartans, but we’ll have to wait and see about that. As it pertains to the showdown, ESPN believes the Nittany Lions will come out victorious, giving them a 65.9% chance of victory.

ESPN’s FPI final record projection for Penn State — 9.2-2.9

As you can see, ESPN’s FPI is high on Penn State, and their algorithm gives them a final computed record of 9.2-2.9, which can be rounded off to 9-3. Now, that’s not nearly what Nittany Lions fans are expecting in 2023, and the data isn’t always right, so it’ll be interesting to see if Penn State can prove them wrong.

With Drew Allar taking over at quarterback, the hype is strong, even if ESPN’s predictions aren’t all favorable. Nevertheless, it’s going to be a fun season for the Nittany Lions, and we can’t wait to see them hit the field running.