Breaking down the 2023 Penn State season using the over/under

Recently, two of On3’s top college football experts, Andy Staples and J.D. PicKell, came together to discuss the upcoming action for this season on the Andy Staples Podcast. Staples picked PicKell’s brain regarding some of the best over-under bets for the season including Penn State.

And that is when the host of The Hard Count doubled down on his previous stance of taking over for the Penn State Nittany Lions, whose win line sits at 9.5.

“I just have such a difficult time believing that they’re going to drop Ohio State, Michigan, and then another one,” said PicKell. “And I understand that Drew Allar is going to be fresh out the box. They don’t play Ohio State until Week 8, so you have that going for you if you’re rooting for the over.”

Penn State will start the season with a quality litmus test Indy West Virginia Mountaineers, who are primed for a much better season this year in the Big 12 Conference. After that, the Nittany Lions will have five games leading up to their road matchup against Ohio State. Arguably, the most challenging opponent in that run of games will be the Iowa Hawkeyes, whom they will face in their home confines at Beaver Stadium.

Still, for PicKell, it’s not just about how Penn State’s 2023 schedule is laid out. The Nittany Lions have talent all over the field on offense and defense. But arguably, none will play a more prominent role in their success this year than their five-star quarterback from the 2022 recruiting class, Drew Allar.

“I don’t see a situation where the experience they have on defense, on the offensive line, even if it isn’t as proven,” he continued. “Just guys that have been within that team for a while. There’s so much about this team that I like outside of Drew Allar. And you add Drew Allar to it, and you add what he’s gonna be in October, November.

“Like we’ve seen what they did with Sean Clifford, and I’m not here to dunk on Sean Clifford. I think he’s phenomenal, but from a pure ability standpoint, you upgrade at quarterback. That can only stay down for so long. So I like Penn State. I love the over. You’re telling me I can drop Ohio State and Michigan and still hit? I’m taking over on this, Andy.”

In his previous take, PicKell highlighted the quality of both Ohio State and Michigan’s rosters. But he believes that Penn State’s roster is just as talented as theirs and can possibly split their matchups between the two.

With both Ohio State and Michigan expected to move things around next season, Penn State is in the right position to challenge for the Big Ten crown. And that would mean that the college football experts’ preseason prediction will be right on the nose.