Joel Klatt details Penn State's best avenue toward winning Big Ten East

College football experts across America are weighing in and making final predictions for the upcoming 2023 season as programs wrap up their fall camps. Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt took some time recently to break down the three-way battle for the Big Ten East crown between Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State.

Many college football experts believe the division and, ultimately, the Big Ten title will belong to either the Wolverines or the Buckeyes this season. But Klatt sees a way for the Nittany Lions to topple their conference foes.

“Their best avenue, Penn State’s, would be hoping for a three-way tie. If I was a Penn State fan, and I was like, how do we win the division and go play for a Big Ten title? I would hope for a three-way tie,” said Klatt. “Because of how different Ohio State and Michigan are, it’s going to be almost insurmountable to try to ask a team to beat both of those teams. Again, because of the styles that you have to play to beat them.”

Penn State does have the talent on roster this season to beat one or both of their division rivals. And finishing the season undefeated in Big Ten play would punch the Nittany Lions’ ticket to the conference championship game. However, suppose Klatt’s prediction comes true, and all three teams finish in a three-way tie. In that case, the Big Ten East representative will be determined via tiebreakers.

“So where does that leave Penn State? I’ve done the homework on this. We get to basically the top four tiebreakers… If Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State all finish 11-1 and their only losses are to each other; here’s what it comes down to. The top four tiebreaking models in the Big Ten would basically be a wash because it would all be about win percentage that you had versus common opponents. But again, they just lose to each other,” said Klatt.

“The fifth tiebreaker says, whatever the record is of your non-divisional opponents. So, let’s look at their non-divisional opponents. Michigan has Nebraska, Minnesota, and Purdue. Ohio State has Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Purdue. Penn State’s non-division opponents: Illinois, Iowa, and Northwestern. I think that the advantage in a three-way tie goes to Ohio State if you’re just basing this off of biggest win prediction for the three teams.

“Ohio State’s three non-divisional opponents have a Vegas prediction of 21 wins. Michigan’s non-division opponents have a Vegas prediction of 18 wins. And Penn State’s non-division opponents have a Vegas win prediction of 17.5.”

In the tiebreaker approach that Klatt has outlined, Penn State’s fate could very well lie in the hands of their west division foes and how they perform in 2023. With the Nittany Lions facing off against competition projected not to be as strong, that could doom their chances of representing the Big Ten East in the title game. Still, Klatt has a suggestion of what the Penn State faithful could do to assist their chances of coming out on top should there be a three-way tie at the top of their division.

“So what I’m telling you is, Penn State, you’ve got to immediately get on the Hawkeyes bandwagon and pray that Northwestern is not as bad as we think they are. Because those two things have to happen if you’re going to win a three-team tiebreak.”