Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Penn State in 2024

The 2024 season will see the College Football Playoff expand to 12 teams. With that, teams like the Penn State Nittany Lions who have never made the Playoff but have high aspirations now have an easier time making it to the Playoff.

This change to the Playoff comes at the same time that the Big Ten is expanding by adding four key Pac-12 programs. With that, there are plenty of questions about where a team like Penn State is going to end up in the conference. So, Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire broke down the team’s ceiling and floor for the 2024 season on Andy Staples On3.

Ultimately, this Penn State team has a chance to make noise in the postseason. However, there’s also a chance that the Nittany Lions miss the Playoff in 2024 again.

CEILING: College Football Playoff and advance

With this being the first year for the College Football Playoff to expand to 12 teams, it’s going to be easier for teams to make it in. That, according to Andy Staples, is going to massively help Penn State moving forward.

“No team, probably, needed a 12-team playoff more than Penn State. Penn State is a team that would have been in a 12-team playoff a bunch during the James Franklin era,” Staples said. “The knock on James Franklin is that they can’t seem to get past the elite teams in their conference. This will allow them to play the elite teams if they can continue to be as good as they’ve been in the regular season. They will get their opportunity in the postseason to play elite teams and prove that one way or another.”

Cody Bellaire shared that he does have some concerns about the quarterback position. However, he also praised the team as a whole going into 2024.

“Yes, you have one of the top backs in the country in Nick Singleton. You lose KeAndre Lambert-Smith at receiver, but you do replace him with Julian Fleming. This is such a good defense. You have Abdul Carter, one of the top hybrid defenders in the country.”

At that point, Staples chimed in to praise how Penn State is looking to use Carter, one of the best edge rushing talents in the country.

“And they’re going play him at the position he’s good at, which you know is one of my pet peeves when they don’t do that.”

Abdul Carter even drew a comparison to former Penn State edge rusher Micah Parsons. Because of him, and how the schedule shakes out, there is a chance that Penn State can compete for a Big Ten title or more this season.

“Go hunt. You’ve got a dog, go let him hunt. So, Abdul Carter is gonna take over that sort of Micah Parsons, Swiss army knife, go line him up, go after the quarterback,” Bellaire said.

“If they’re able to start 5-0, you have a really good shot. You get Ohio State at home, you avoid Oregon and Michigan, but this team has a real shot at a conference title, especially if Drew Allar can step up and develop as a true passer.”

James Franklin is turning to two new coordinators in 2024. How they handle themselves will be key, but could also propel the Nittany Lions into the expanded Playoff.

“This is a big question. Andy Kotelnicki takes over as the offensive coordinator, very creative at Kansas. Lots of fun. Tom Allen is your new defensive coordinator. Yeah, he got fired as the head coach at Indiana but that’s a hard job. I don’t doubt him as a defensive play caller and I don’t doubt him as a recruiter going forward for Penn State,” Staples said.

“So, I think Penn State is very well positioned for the 12-team playoff era. Now, it’s a matter of just get in there and prove you can compete. So, ceiling for them is make the College Football Playoff and advance in the Playoff.”

For his part, Cody Bellaire agreed. The College Football Playoff is very much on the table for Penn State.

“I completely agree. I have 11-1 as my best case, only loss being to Ohio State. Make it to the Playoff. Maybe make a run at a national title. Don’t see them winning it necessarily, but you’re in there.”

FLOOR: 9-3 or 8-4

While the Playoff is a possibility for Penn State, coming up just short is also possible. That’s especially true if the Nittany Lions struggle in the middle of the season against a tough stretch of conference games.

“But, it is no longer a two-game season for Penn State because of the way the schedule has changed,” Staples said. “There’s that stretch in there where they’re playing USC and Ohio State and Wisconsin kind of all mashed together. I do believe that makes this very interesting.”

Cody Bellaire added to that, arguing the opening game against West Virginia will also be vital to get things going on the right foot.

“Conversely, you look at the beginning of that schedule, you start with West Virginia. That is extremely interesting…if this team slips up early, that stretch against USC, Wisconsin, Ohio State, you feel the pressure a little bit more if you’re James Franklin than you would if you’re going into that stretch 5-0,” Bellaire said.

“So, I think he feels a lot of pressure going into this. Yes, the playoff expands, which helps them out, but you’ve got to come out in Week 1 and you’ve got to hope that Drew Allar is turning into the guy you thought he was gonna be when you named him the starter. This is a very pivotal year for him.”

Still, even with those questions, Penn State is very good and Staples has a high floor for the Nittany Lions.

“My floor for them is 9-3,” Staples said. “That’s where people go crazy is if you just miss the Playoff all these years when you would have made it.”

For his part, Bellaire sees a slightly lower floor. However, the result is very much the same for both of them.

“Again the scenario that scares me if you’re Penn State is that West Virginia game. If you drop game one, I think the pressure hits a ridiculous rate and that’s a team that could go 8-4, 9-3 if that happens.”