Predicting the win-total ceiling, floor for Purdue in 2024

Purdue struggled in their first season under Ryan Walters last fall. More of the same could be coming for the Boilermakers, though, if not worse because of their schedule in 2024.

On Monday, On3’s Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire discussed all the best and worst-case scenarios for each team in the Big Ten. For Purdue, Staples says that ceiling for them can only get so high considering what’s on the slate before we even see the team on the field.

“Let us get on the tracks – you may be laying on the tracks here,” said Staples. “Take everything we just said about Rutgers’ schedule and flip it. (Purdue) gets Oregon, they get Ohio State, and they get Penn State in the Big Ten schedule. In the non-conference, they have to go to Corvallis against an Oregon State team that wants to prove a point against the league that helped decimate their whole league. Oh, by the way, they also play Notre Dame.”

Bellaire couldn’t have agreed more about the difficulty of the path for Purdue. While he likes some of the pieces on their roster, it’s only going to make so much of a difference against at least five teams that he and others will determine are losses before they even kick off.

“Yuck. I mean complete yuck. Like, this is a team too, you know, coming off a 4-8 record last year, Ryan Walters’ first year as a head coach. This schedule does them absolutely zero favors,” said Bellaire. “You get three of the big four – you get Oregon, you get Ohio State, and Penn State. ‘Oh boy, you miss Michigan! Hooray!’. You also get Oregon State and Notre Dame.”

“That’s five automatic losses, almost borderline automatic losses off the jump,” Bellaire stated. “So, yes, you return a good offensive line. I actually like Hudson Card at quarterback. He had some up and down last year. You know, you’re a solid defense. You lose a potential first-rounder in Nic Scourton to the portal. Yeah, you still have Dillon Thieneman, who’s a great player at safety. Yanni Karlaftis is great up front. But, Andy, I don’t know if this team touches a bowl game. I don’t think they can.”

Ceiling: 5-7

With their specific schedule, Staples and Bellaire agreed that the best finish in West Lafayette would be that of a five-win team

“I have the ceiling at 5-7,” said Staples

“I do too,” Bellaire concurred.

That record would be only more frustrating for the Boilermakers considering how the toughness of their schedule caps their chances to a certain point, especially in comparison to other teams in the league.

“If you give them Rutgers’ Big Ten schedule? Their ceiling would be a bowl game of some kind – but they didn’t get that schedule,” said Staples. “That is a crazy, crazy difference in schedule. That’s why I wanted to do Rutgers and Purdue back-to-back. It is so hard to comprehend how one got such an easy draw and one just got brutalized.”

Floor: 2-10

As for the floor, Staples and Bellaire also agreed that a two-win season may potentially happen for the Boilermakers, which would be their worst record in almost a decade in 2015. That’s because, beyond their very difficult matchups, Bellaire also isn’t sure in how many more of the rest of their games on the schedule that they’ll be a favorite in.

“I have the floor at 2-10,” Staples said.

“Exactly the same,” Bellaire said. “I mean I just don’t see a scenario. Andy, to your point, if you say the floor if 2-10? They beat Indiana State. Who else are they favored against?”

A team’s eventual fate can come down to a lot of aspects, including facts like themselves as well as their draw on the schedule. Those circumstances for Purdue are exactly why nether Staples nor Bellaire are high on them for this upcoming season, even if they were to take an unexpected one or two.

“It’s tough. I mean, you look at it. You know, maybe there’s a world in which your only wins if you’re Purdue are Indiana State in Week 1, you possibly go and beat Northwestern at home, Indiana on the road,” said Bellaire. “But, my goodness. To start off your year just looking at it on paper and say, ‘Yep, you got pretty much four in chalk’ that you know you’re losing, maybe five? It’s just a gut-punch if you’re a Boilermaker fan.”