Could Santa Clara's Brandin Podziemski sneak into the first round?

The West Coast Conference (WCC) knows draft picks. Obviously, Gonzaga carries the torch here with 11 players drafted over the past ten years. However, in recent years, the WCC has also produced the likes of Patty Mills (Saint Mary’s), Jimmer Fredette (BYU), Kessler Edwards (Pepperdine), Jalen Williams (Santa Clara), and Orlando Johnson (UC Santa Barbara). Could Santa Clara Brandin Podziemski be next?

There has been a lot of talk about Podziemski coming from the West Coast. Through his first 22 games, the 6-foot-5 sophomore is averaging 19.0 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.9 steals this season. Is there a draft pick in there?

I wanted to take a quick dive into Brandin Podziemski’s game to see just what it looks like.

An ELITE performance by Brandin Podziemski to lead Santa Clara to victory against Pepperdine last night:
-27 points
-10 rebounds
-6 assists

Many NBA scouts were in attendance. 👀

Next up for @brandinpodziem2 & @SantaClaraHoops is to face off against Gonzaga tomorrow night! pic.twitter.com/BcaDfni3oj

— DREAMERS (@Dreamersmbb) January 6, 2023

Podziemski’s path

Brandin Podziemski’s junior and senior years of high school came during a pandemic. It was truly interesting how quickly he rose as people started to talk about a high-scoring lefty in Wisconsin. The tricky part was his film was great, but not many had seen him live.

There was a lot of guesswork in his evaluation because of COVID; the EYBL was shut down during his junior year summer, entry for games was closed off, and travel around the country was shut down. Regardless of that, Podziemski went on to average 35.1 points and 10.0 rebounds as a senior and won the 2021 Wisconsin Gatorade Player of the Year award.

His 43.4 percent shooting from three opened the eyes of college coaches as he had around 15 offers coming out of high school, ultimately signing with Illinois. Podizemski ranked No. 76 in the final 2021 On3 Consensus, an algorithm that takes the evenly distributed average of all four major recruiting services.

There is no single path available that will ultimately get you to a desired destination. At Illinois, Podziemski averaged 4.6 minutes and 1.4 points and only got into 16 games. After one season in Champaign, he hit the transfer portal, committed to Santa Clara, and immediately got his swagger back.

Podziemski on offense

The feel pops immediately. Podziemski has put up numbers across the board this season. His 19.0 points are third in the Conference. His 8.2 rebounds are second, his 3.3 assists are eighth, his 1.9 steals are third, and his 41.2 three-point percentage is third.

A quick search through College Basketball Reference shows there are only three players in D-I this season who have played in 15 games that are averaging at least 18 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 3.1 assists. Podziemski is joined in the search by Jake Stephens (UT-Chattanooga) and Trayce Jackson-Davis (Indiana). When you add in the 41 percent shooting from three or 1.0 steals per game, Podziemski sits alone on the list.

Podziemski plays with a swagger and undeniable confidence. When you take the following search and expand it over the last 30 years, only 28 names show up on the list. There Podziemski is joined by the likes of Tim Duncan, Penny Hardaway, Evan Turner, Ben Simmons, and David West.

The scoring is interesting. Podziemski is averaging 19.0 per game. A look at his shooting splits via Synergy, and you see he is shooting 50.3 percent from two and 41.9 percent from three. The jump shooting grades out as ‘excellent,’ scoring 1.119 points per possession. In catch-and-shoot situations, Podziemski grades out in the 85th percentile, and in off-the-dribble jumpers, he is in the 82nd percentile.

More on the scoring

More than just a jump shooter, there is versatility in how Podziemski scores the basketball. The question is his scoring at the rim, where Synergy says he is finishing only in the 47th percentile and shooting 33.3 percent from 17 feet and in. The counter to that is how good he is with runners, pull-ups, and floaters.

While he has the craftiness off the bounce to touch the paint, Podziemski has a feel for when he is getting too deep. With mid-range jumpers (17 feet to the three-point line), Podziemski is finishing in the 87th percentile. Along with the feel, much of this has to do with his ability to play on balance and his natural touch.

Circling back to Podziemski’s finishing at the rim, there is a question about overall athletic pop. The guard relies more on his craft to get to his spots instead of a quick burst or a twitchy first step. While he does not blow by a defender or finish over the top of one, he does have excellent balance at this level. This allows him to avert dead-on contact and create fouls. Podziemski is averaging 4.5 free-throw attempts per game this season and knocking them down at a 79.0 percent clip.

Podziemski plays left-hand dominant, but he is not averse to going right. The eye test does make it seem that he will dribble with his right, only to set up getting back to his left. That has not shown to be an issue yet with the numbers, as Synergy shows he drives more right and finishes better going right.

Podziemski on defense

Defensively, Podziemski will never be a world-beater, but he does have some natural instincts on that end of the floor. On an island, the lateral quickness will be questioned. However, as a team defender, Podziemski gets into passing lanes and understands angles and help.

For starters, with the counting numbers, Podziemski is averaging 1.9 steals per game this season. That is third in the WCC. A look at the analytics, his primary matchup is shooting 35.6 percent from the field. Within that breakdown are 27.6 percent on catch-and-shoot jumpers, 35.0 percent on runners, and 29.7 percent on off-the-bounce jumpers.

The positioning and the footwork are there, along with the want-to on that end which are signs of encouragement.

In summary

The shooting will be the lede for Podziemski, can he consistently get his shot off and make them at a high clip? In his biggest matchups this season, he has shown he can. He was 9-19 from the field for 21 points against DePaul, 11-18 from the field for 27 points against Maxwell Lewis and Pepperdine, and 7-14 from the field for 17 points against Gonzaga. Sure, that is a small sample size, but it is promising.

The player comparisons you hear the most for Brandin Podziemski are Luke Kennard and Tyler Herro. And while those are each fine, neither is a truly one-to-one comparison.

The secondary skills are promising, as Podziemski is an excellent rebounder for his guard position and his 18.9 assists percentage for 3.3 assists per game is fine. And despite the athleticism questions, Podziemski grades out as average or above across the board.

There are a lot of tools here to like, especially when you see that he continues to get better and more efficient as the season continues. It will be interesting to watch how Podziemski closes out the season and how he does through his pre-draft process – if he declares.