ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for South Carolina in 2023

‘Beamer Ball’ has generated a lot of buzz over Shane Beamer’s first two seasons at South Carolina. As he heads into year three in Columbia, the Gamecocks are now looking to take yet another step forward.

However, their schedule is a very difficult road that they’ll have to travel this fall. It might just be too much in the end for ‘SC to overcome considering, at the moment, they’re slated to face five ranked foes.

ESPN, through the use of their Football Power Index, has examined each of South Carolina’s dozen matchups with kickoff just under two weeks out. The question now is does it suggest that Beamer’s boys will take that next step or does it think that they might miss the postseason?

Sept. 2: South Carolina vs. North Carolina – 37.6% chance of win

South Carolina will have a border battler on their hands when they open against North Carolina in Charlotte in 13 days. It’s highly regarded too considering College Gameday will be on hand for their first show of the season for the matchup between cross-state rivals.

The Gamecocks are undefeated in openers under Beamer and have won their last several against the Tar Heels, including their last matchup in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in ’21. Even so, it’s Mack Brown, Drake Maye, and UNC that come into this game both ranked as well as favored by ESPN.

Sept. 9: South Carolina vs. Furman – 94.4% chance of win

Furman had a great year at the FCS level in 2022 with a 10-3 record. Even so, with the first loss of their last season coming in their year’s second game to Clemson, ESPN believes the Paladins will do the same this fall against another South Carolina school.

With this being the season opener for Williams-Brice, it should end up as a game to chalk up to the home team.

Sept. 16: South Carolina at Georgia – 6.3% chance of win

The first road trip of the season for South Carolina will be a doozy as they’ll head to Athens to face the two-time defending national champions. It might be a long day between the hedge for the road team as they lost to Georgia at home in the same spot on the schedule last season by a score of 48-7.

The Gamecocks picked up a reputation for pulling upsets by the end of last season. Even so, FPI will have to see it to believe it as it gives them less than a 10% chance to win inside Sanford Stadium.

Sept. 23: South Carolina vs. Mississippi State – 53.2% chance of win

Under the assumption that they’ll start 0-1 in SEC play after leaving Athens, South Carolina will return home with essentially a 50-50 shot against Mississippi State according to the FPI.

Considering it’ll be one of their two matchups against the opposite division, and one against a team that’s projected toward the bottom half of the league, this is one that Beamer and company will need to get in order to get right after what might happen the week prior.

Sept. 30: South Carolina @ Tennessee – 22.1% chance of win

The Gamecock’s second road trip could be just as brutal as their first as they’ll head to Rocky Top. It’s not that they can’t knock off the Volunteers but, considering all things, Neyland Stadium will be anything but welcoming after what this specific opponent did to their team a year ago.

This could be another high-scoring affair after Beamer’s offense hung 63 on Tennessee last season at home. With that said, ESPN’s projection expects the Vols to get revenge unless the road team has another upset up their sleeve.

Oct. 14: South Carolina vs. Florida – 42.7% chance of win

Florida was one of the conference opponents that didn’t let the Gamecocks get the drop on them last year. They handled their business with a 38-6 beatdown in The Swamp before Carolina’s final three-game run.

As down as some people are on the Gators, it comes as a surprise that the Football Power Index has them favored in Columbia. That’s especially so considering 10 of ‘SC’s all-time wins over Florida have come on their own home field.

Oct. 21: South Carolina at Missouri – 39.5% chance of win

Missouri also did not let South Carolina catch them off guard last season. They went into Williams-Brice as well and picked up a double-digit win by a score of 23-10 to earn their fourth-straight win over this program.

Now, in Columbia, Missouri this time, the Tigers are favored to get a fifth consecutive victory over Carolina and second third over Beamer. With this being the fourth divisional foe that FPI has favored them over, this is another one that the Gamecocks might have to have.

Oct. 28: South Carolina at Texas A&M – 22% chance of win

South Carolina’s second SEC West opponent is another rough road trip as they’ll head to College Station, a place that they haven’t won in in four tries.

There’s plenty of reason to believe that the Gamecocks could take this one after they beat the Aggies for the first time ever by a score of 30-24 last year. Still, this will be the fifth out of six conference games so far that isn’t in their favor when it comes to FPI.

Nov. 4: South Carolina vs. Jacksonville State -93.9% chance of win

If things don’t start off on the right foot in conference play, this team could get right in this Gamecock vs. Gamecock matchup to start November.

A win over Jacksonville State, who moved up from FCS to Conference USA this offseason, could be just what Carolina needs to kick off their home stand to close the regular season.

Nov. 11: South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt – 76.7% chance of win

Vanderbilt could provide another layup of a matchup if the trend in the series continues. South Carolina has won 13 straight over the Commodores now after winning 38-27 last season in Nashville.

This may give the Gamecocks a pair of straight forward wins to pick up before they finish with two more difficult matchups in Columbia.

Nov. 18: South Carolina vs. Kentucky – 46.2% chance of win

There seems to be no love lost between the Gamecocks and Wildcats as divisional foes. That might be the case considering Kentucky’s recent success over this particular opponent.

Still, Will Levis or not, South Carolina came to Lexington last season and knocked off a Top-15 UK team by a score of 24-14. That should give them enough momentum in the series to try to prove ESPN wrong in this close call that’s currently leaning a tad bit in the ‘Cat’s way.

Nov. 25: South Carolina vs. Clemson – 22.8% chance of win

Bragging rights will once again be on the line in the season finale with the Palmetto Bowl. The Gamecocks will be riding high into it too considering they broke a seven-game losing streak with their 31-30 win over the Tigers in Clemson in ’22.

However, as another ranked opponent, Clemson will also be out for revenge and, like Tennessee, has the Football Power Index favoring them to make up for last year’s upset.

ESPN’s final record projection for South Carolina per FPI — 5.6-6.4

After going 6-6 and 8-4 in Beamer’s first two regular seasons, the Gamecocks will be hoping for a far better finish than ESPN’s expectation of them barely scraping bowl eligibility. Still, this is just a preseason calculation and, considering their strength of schedule, isn’t something that’s completely far-fetched.

Now, South Carolina will have every chance to prove it wrong by handling their business in conference play and potentially pulling another upset or two along the way to try and make it three for three when it comes to reaching bowl games under Beamer.