Should South Carolina's GG Jackson opt out this season?

On Monday, well-known NBA Draft Analyst Rafael Barlowe posted on Twitter, “If the draft was today, I’m using a top 5 pick on GG Jackson.”

The timing of this tweet was interesting to me. Over the last two weeks, I’ve been out on the road at several events. A common topic of conversation was GG Jackson. Numerous people at all levels of basketball asked if he will opt out of the season

Seeing Barlowe’s tweet on my timeline led me to wonder, could opting out be a real possibility?

The first I heard of this ‘opting out option’ was with Jadeveon Clowney. Entering his junior season, many thought he had done enough to solidify himself atop the 2014 NFL Draft. Many pundits thought out loud, should he opt out for his junior season? He did not.

Opting out has become common in college football. Many players who are projected as top draft picks choose not to play in their team’s bowl games and instead train for the draft. However, this is not for entire seasons.

In college basketball, it is something that is rarely, if ever, spoken about. When Zion Williamson blew out his shoe against North Carolina on national television, many suggested he opt out for the remainder of the season. Like Clowney, Zion did not. The only player in recent memory to opt out of a season was Duke’s Jalen Johnson in the 2020-21 COVID-shortened season. Similarly, Ben Simmons‘ 2016 LSU team opted out of post-season play. Johnson went 20th and Simmons 1st in their respective drafts.

There have also been players who have struggled through injury for the better part of a season. Looking back at the 2020 NBA Draft, No. 14 pick Aaron Nesmith played 14 games and then sat the remainder of the season with a foot injury. A year prior, No. 5 pick Darius Garland played five games and then sat the remainder of the year with a meniscus injury. Similarly, 2011 No. 1 pick Kyrie Irving suffered an injury to a ligament in his big toe during his ninth game at Duke. Players have missed half a season or more with injury declared for the draft and gone in the lottery.

Has Jackson done enough?

To this point, GG Jackson is averaging 17.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks. The 6-foot-9 freshman is also shooting 37.3 percent from three on 5.2 attempts per game. Through 13 games played, Jackson is second among all freshmen in D-I in points per game, sixth in rebounds per game, and fourth in usage (30.1).

Statistically, Jackson has been among the best freshmen in the country. He has been given a lot of opportunity and freedom to showcase his skillset and grow his confidence.

Look at most 2023 NBA Mock Drafts, and you will find Jackson entrenched as a projected lottery pick. While there are not many who currently share Barlowe’s thoughts of having Jackson as a top-five pick, the majority agree with him in the top 14, with many having him in the top ten.

However…

The SEC has 14 teams in the league, with five teams ranked in the KenPom top 25. Eight other teams fall between 25 and 100 on KenPom. Jackson’s South Carolina program is the only SEC team that ranks outside of the top 100 in KenPom. They are currently No. 203.

The next lowest-ranked SEC team in KenPom is Georgia, at No. 99. The SEC has no less than 11 players who are being talked about as potential 2023 NBA Draft picks, with Nick Smith, Jr., Brandon Miller, Anthony Black, and Cason Wallace joining Jackson as potential lottery picks.

South Carolina will kick off SEC play Tuesday night against Vanderbilt –ranked No. 95 in KenPom. They then play Tennessee (No. 3), Kentucky (No. 14), Texas A&M (No. 76), Ole Miss (No. 71), Auburn (No. 18), and Florida (No. 47) over the next two weeks.

On the one hand…

The SEC is a murder’s row of talent. There are no off nights, especially if you are the No. 203 ranked team in KenPom. Jackson, who just turned 18 on December 17, is the youngest college player showing up on the 2023 Mock NBA Drafts. He is also scoring over 26 percent of his team’s points on the season.

Many people talk about a freshman wall. The grueling days of league play happen with long trips and many teams having film on you and building defenses to stop you. How will that play out in this situation, some may ask?

On the other hand…

To this point, GG Jackson has answered the call. The team is currently 7-6, and Jackson has performed his best when the lights have been brightest. His season high came in a 24-point outburst last week against Eastern Michigan’s Emoni Bates. Jackson shot 44.4 percent from three and added nine rebounds in the game. On the road against UAB (No. 51) – the highest-ranked KenPom team South Carolina has played thus far –Jackson finished with 20 points, on 37.5 percent from three.

In league play, there will be ample opportunities and matchups for Jackson to take hold of. Many NBA scouts have the February 22 showdown against Alabama’s Brandon Miller tentatively circled. If Jackson were to take each of these match-ups head-on and continue showing shot-making and creation, many feel he would shoot up draft boards.

What do you think? Has Jackson done enough to have solidified himself as a lottery pick?