Paul Finebaum, Heather Dinich debate what a Big 12 title game loss means for TCU's CFP chances

Although the TCU Horned Frogs came in at No. 3 in the College Football Playoff committee’s penultimate rankings on Tuesday, ESPN analysts Paul Finebaum and Heather Dinich debated a scenario on Get Up whereby Sonny Dykes’ first-year squad loses to Kansas State on Saturday and is held out of the final four next week.

Ohio State would be the most likely beneficiary of a loss by either TCU or USC in their conference championship games this weekend. The Buckeyes came in as the No. 5 team this week after their loss to Michigan.

“I think they will get in and they probably should,” Finebaum said. “I say probably because you need to see what that game looks like. TCU has a good strength of schedule. They’re not the brand name like Alabama, Ohio State, or Clemson, that we’re used to but in first-year coach Sonny Dykes’ season, they’ve been unbelievable. They dominated most of their games, including last week.

“Short of an absolute annihilation, they’ll probably sneak in. I say sneak in because there are people around the country are going they shouldn’t be in if they lose.”

Heather Dinich agreed with the SEC’s Mouth of the South, but noted that TCU had to overcome an 18-point deficit against Kansas State in their first matchup this season. Saturday’s Big 12 title game is far from a formality.

“I agree,” Dinich added. “TCU is No. 1 in the country right now in strength of record. They’re facing a top-10 team right now in K-State. To Paul’s point, we’ll have to see how this game unfolds. I think they would have to be absolutely destroyed in this game to not get in… If USC also loses, that increases their chances of staying in, even with a loss.”

CFP semifinal odds released after penultimate CFP rankings

Tuesday’s penultimate top 25 released with some change coming in near the top. Ohio State slipped to No. 5 after their loss against Michigan, while USC leapfrogged to No. 4.

Lines for potential matchups in the playoff were released shortly after the committee’s reveal by Collin Wilson of the Action Network. Ranging from Georgia at No. 1 to Ohio State, he ran through a round-robin of all five teams playing against one another.

By this time next week, two semifinal games will be set and there will be legitimate betting lines. For now, we will have to settle for the hypotheticals, as conference championship weekend is upon us.

Here the 10 potential game spreads – all assume the game is at a neutral site. The TCU Horned Frogs come in as the favorite in just one hypothetical matchup, which is versus the Trojans.

UGA -4½ Michigan
UGA -10 TCU
Michigan -5½ TCU
UGA -13½ USC
UGA -5 Ohio State
Michigan -9 USC
Michigan Pk Ohio St
TCU -3½ USC
Ohio St -5 TCU
Ohio St -8½ USC

On3’s Griffin McVeigh contributed to this report.