Predicting ceiling, floor for TCU in 2024 season

The TCU Horned Frogs are looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2023 season, which saw them miss a bowl game after playing for a national title the year before. That, should, make for an interesting third season for head coach Sonny Dykes.

With that context in mind, Andy Staples and Ari Temkin of Big 12 Radio broke down TCU for the upcoming season on Andy Staples On3. While there, they predicted what the win ceiling and floor could be for TCU in the 2024 season.

Together, they agreed that TCU has more than a few questions to answer going into the 2024 season. Because of that, their ceiling is likely around eight games while the floor is a repeat of last season and would end in four or five wins.

CEILING: 8-4

The major question coming into the 2024 season for Andy Staples about TCU is which version of the team shows up for Sonny Dykes’ third season.

“Do we need to give Sonny Dykes the benefit of the doubt? He takes TCU to the national title game his first year there, then last year the wheels fall off,” Andy Staples said. “We watch them against Colorado, and we’re like, ‘Okay, maybe that was just Colorado is gonna be good,’ and then you watch TCU the rest of the season, it’s, ‘Oh, no. Maybe not.'”

Not only are there questions about what TCU looks like, there are also unknowns in the form of changes to the coaching staff and the roster. Because of that, it’s easy enough to see how to be positive about the Horned Frogs.

“So, Josh Hoover, the QB, missed spring practice with an injury. Joe Gillespie is out as the DC. Andy Avalos, who was the Boise State head coach comes in. He runs a 3-3-5 but will mostly use one of the linebackers as an edge guy, so it’ll look like an even front a lot of the time,” Staples said. “They lose Damonic Williams, the defensive tackle, to Oklahoma…They bring in Nana Osafo-Mensah from Notre Dame who is one of those guys that played a bunch at Notre Dame. He’s in his sixth year but was probably gonna get one-upped by a younger guy. So, he comes in but should be very productive. Kendal Briles. Year two as the OC. What does that look like? Can they get back, is the question.”

On the defensive side of the ball, at least, Ari Temkin thinks TCU fans are going to like what they see.

“Defensively this team was so bad last year,” Temkin said. “Avalos comes in and you mentioned the defense they’re gonna run. TCU fans will like the look of this defense because it’s gonna look a lot more like what Gary Patterson ran. It’s gonna be a lot more aggressive. As you mentioned, it’s gonna be a lot more even fronts with even a 4-2-5 than a rush three, drop eight. From a talent perspective, they also really improved their roster overall but certainly on defense too.”

On top of all of that, there’s reasons to be positive on the offensive side of the ball, which should be Sonny Dykes’ strength.

“I think Hoover, for a young quarterback, for a guy who had to be thrust into a starting spot that was surprising,” Temkin said. “I think he probably showed out as good as anybody in this conference. So, there’s some excitement about what he’s got. Then, they bring in Eric McAlister, a wide receiver from Boise State.”

With all of that in mind, Staples gave TCU a win ceiling of eight games in the 2024 season. Temkin agreed, also pointing out that the Horned Frogs got a manageable schedule.

“Yeah, and then you look at their [schedule]. At Kansas, at Utah. At Utah is a tough game. We talked about at Kansas maybe not as tough as it should be because it’s at Arrowhead, although it’s never a good environment anyway. Then, at Cincinnati to close it out. Nippert has been a good environment. I look at their schedule overall and say, it’s not too hard, not too bad. Probably in the middle. So, I would say their ceiling is probably eight wins, based on their schedule,” Temkin concluded.

FLOOR: 4-8, 5-3

The problem for a team with a lot of questions is that if they’re not answered properly, things can go poorly relatively quickly. That, also, could be the case for TCU. In particular, Ari Temkin doesn’t have a ton of faith in the Horned Frogs in 2024.

“I think if we looked at this team last year realistically, we could have seen what happened to their defense coming. Like everything worked perfectly for them in year one with Joe Gillespie and Sonny Dykes and it was like whatever could go wrong year two went wrong. It was just the wrong scheme for the wrong personnel. The year before was the right scheme for the right personnel. It did not work year two,” Temkin said.

“I just, I don’t know. I don’t know that I’m buying TCU this year. There’s too many question marks. You go back to that how many things do we know? How many question marks do they have? Too many question marks for me and TCU… and their floor is probably five wins.”

Andy Staples agreed that the floor could be relatively low because there are too many questions currently left unanswered in Fort Worth.

“I’m gonna say 4-8 for the floor, 8-4 for the ceiling, because I just don’t know what they’re gonna be,” Staples said.